Zairian

IT IS ABUNDANTLY clear that Zairians will not fight to save the presidency of Mobutu Sese Seku, whose chief protectors are foreigners: Hutu refugees who were soldiers in Rwanda; Serb and Croatian mercenaries, and some UNITA insurrectionaries of Jonas Savimbi in Angola. But Zairian civilians, aside from the ruling clique in Kinshasa, are more afraid of the Zairian army -- unpaid looters who won't fight -- than of the rebels. Better the devil they don't know.Rebel forces of Laurent Kabila are moving inexorably forward from the fifth of the country they occupy.

OPENLY DEFYING one of the founding principles of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), the Tutsis are making the first serious effort to redraw the African borders since the Berlin Conference of 1884 divided Africa.Although a minority in each of the five Central African countries in which they live, ethnic Tutsis currently find themselves in power in three of these countries (Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi) and are expanding their power base, primarily at the expense of ethnic Hutus, their long-time rivals.

WHETHER President Mobutu Sese Seko takes advantage of a South African offer to meet with Zairian rebels matters less and less as each hour passes. His misrule is coming to the end.In seven months, the rebels have seized more than half of Africa's third-largest nation. Yesterday, they captured Kikwit, a city on a major highway 250 miles east of the capital. "The next stop is Kinshasa," a rebel spokesman said.The U.S. position is revealing. After propping up the regime for so long, Washington now wants President Mobutu to resign so democratic elections can be held and the possible disintegration of Zaire avoided.

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast -- With evacuation efforts paralyzed for thousands of sick and starving Rwandan Hutu refugees stranded in central Zaire, United Nations officials are accusing Zaire's rebel movement of deliberately impeding emergency relief operations aimed at helping them.International relief agencies say there is evidence of a drive by the Zairian insurgents to kill off thousands of Rwandan Hutu refugees.In an unusually blunt criticism Monday, the head of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, Sadako Ogata, accused the Zairian rebellion led by Laurent Kabila of manufacturing pretenses to deny relief workers access to as many as 100,000 of the desperate Hutus who are located in the region of Kisangani and of preventing the operation of an airlift to transport them home.

CYANGUGU, Rwanda -- In the still of a rainy season afternoon, as storm clouds loom, the refugees appear, their clothes dirty and tattered, their faces tired and worn, a few possessions in bundles on their heads, babies strapped to the backs of young mothers.A ragtag group of about 50 leads the way down the steep paved road to the bridge over the Rusizi River that is the border between Zaire and Rwanda, two countries edging perilously close to an African apocalypse.These are but a handful of more than a million hungry, thirsty and disease-threatened refugees hiding far beyond the reach of aid agencies that fed many of them while hoping they would return home to Rwanda despite their fear of being slaughtered there.

Corruption, political repression and poverty are fueling violence in Zaire. The French ambassador was slain. The country's president, Mobutu Sese Seko, has again blocked democratic change by dismissing the prime minister. Hundreds have died in rioting.Mr. Mobutu is trying to keep his grip on power, as a nascent democracy movement struggles for recognition and as the United States searches for a new policy toward an old ally. It is a policy change the Clinton administration should make as soon as possible.

KIGALI, Rwanda -- For decades, the Western world's attention has been drawn to Africa by images of sick and starving people in places such as Biafra, Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia where innocent victims are dying.But the Zairian crisis is different.The environment into which President Clinton proposes to inject U.S. forces involves not only Zaire, but also Rwanda and Burundi, where the Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups live in murderous hatred of each other.The people who will be served in Zaire are mostly Rwandan Hutu refugees.

EACH NEW eruption of the Hutu-Tutsi conflict in central Africa -- Rwanda, Burundi, now Zaire -- reminds African Americans of how little they know about the homeland of their ancestors.While many Americans of European, Middle Eastern or Asian descent can identify through family history with modern ethnic conflicts that have occurred in places such as Bosnia, Iraq and Azerbaijan, most African Americans cannot similarly connect the dots.The Africa part they know, but beyond that only some families have been able to determine their deepest ethnic roots.

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa -- President Nelson Mandela invited Zaire's beleaguered President Mobutu Sese Seko yesterday to meet with rebel leader Laurent Kabila for face-to-face talks here in South Africa.The invitation caps a sustained effort by Mandela's government to play a leading role as continental peacemaker in a civil war that threatens not only the survival of Zaire but Central Africa's stability."We are confident that all parties are committed now to having a summit between the two leaders," Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad said in a radio interview last night.

THE HOMECOMING of President Mobutu Sese Seku after four months in Europe was the best thing that could happen to troubled Zaire in the short term. He was running his regime by phone, diplomats attest. Even his enemies give him some credit for holding the country together. The best use he could possibly make of this probably brief presence, however, would be to prepare an orderly departure.After international agencies and donor nations suspended Zaire's aid, the dictator who seized power with U.S. support in 1965 pledged to hold nationwide elections next June.