Tonight

Two weeks ago, the conventional wisdom was that televised presidential debates weren't going to matter much this year. Then a TV debate took place in Denver on Oct. 3, and we are still talking about Big Bird being threatened, moderator Jim Lehrer getting steamrolled, President Barack Obama under-performing and the polls flipping from “done deal” to “game on” overnight. Voters knew the debates mattered, even as the media and political wise men and women were telling them they didn't.

J.K. Rowling doesn't make many public appearances, so tonight's New York City event to publicize her new novel "The Casual Vacancy" is getting a lot of attention. Fellow novelist Ann Patchett will lead a conversation, and there will be a Q&A. If you're not one of the lucky 1,200 or so who scored tickets for the event at Jazz at Lincoln Center's Frederick P. Rose Hall, you can still participate long-distance. Some bookstores will hold public screenings via a live webcast; among those listed A Likely Story Bookstore, 7566 Main Street in Sykesville.

This is it. If the Orioles lose Thursday night, the season  - a crazy, unexpected thrill ride of a season - is over. The Orioles know that. They also know they've survived plenty all year. "It's pretty much win or go home tomorrow, isn't it? There's pretty much no turning back,” said center fielder Adam Jones. “We're going to have the same attitude, the same mentality we've had since the first day of spring training. We're going to have fun, let it fly and live with the results.” They were in this position last Friday, when they had to beat the Rangers in Texas to advance to the Division Series.

The Orioles and Rangers lineups are up for tonight's one-game American League wild-card playoff in Arlington. The Orioles lineup is pretty much representative of what it has been the last part of this season. Ryan Flaherty is starting at second base. No other even slight surprises. Here are the Orioles: Nate McLouth LF J.J. Hardy SS Chris Davis RF Adam Jones CF Matt Wieters C Jim Thome DH Mark Reynolds 1B Ryan Flaherty 2B Manny Machado 3B Joe Saunders P Here are the Rangers: Ian Kinsler 2B Elvis Andrus SS Josh Hamilton LF Adrian Beltre 3B Nelson Cruz RF Michael Young 1B Mike Napoli DH Geovany Soto C Craig Gentry CF Yu Darvish P To see the full 25-man rosters, click here.

Orioles fans, let's not hear any more whining about a one-game wild-card playoff and how your team got hosed with this format, OK? Focus on this, people: 93 wins after a 69-win season. Last to second in the American League East. Postseason play for the first time in 15 years. That's not too shabby, is it? Anyone going to weep after a season like that? So enjoy tonight's game against the Texas Rangers and we'll see where it leaves these scrappy O's, who've had more comebacks than Rocky after tough defeats.

Random thoughts as the Orioles go into tonight's game against the Rays with their backs against the wall, one game behind the Yankees for the AL East crown with two to go: ** Was that a great scene in the O's dugout last night after Chris Davis hit that two-run shot in the ninth off Ray's reliever Kylle Farnsworth, the one that hit the Tropicana Field catwalk? Davis himself had no idea what happened, that much was clear. When the ball smacked what's called the C-ring of the roof's catwalk, he practically stopped in his tracks around second base, wondering why the ball had suddenly landed 100 feet or so in front of the outfield wall.

I know I will probably never hear a seriously negative word about the NFL on its owned and operated cable channel. But I have to admit, I almost always enjoy watching the Baltimore Ravens on the NFL Network. I was reminded Thursday again of what a great evening of TV football the channel provided last Thanksgiving with the Harbaugh Bowl and the Terrell Suggs postgame celebration. I love the energy and sense of camaraderie among Rich Eisen and his pre-game and halftime team of Marshall Faulk, Deion Sanders, Michael Irvin and Steve Mariucci.

The Orioles are at the point that all losses are bad losses, that all games are big games. There are only seven games left in this season, the AL wild-card is tightening and they are still just 1 ½ games behind the New York Yankees. So they absolutely positively need to win Wednesday night even though it is - as the Orioles keep saying - one game. It's one game, that if it is a loss, would be three straight to the last place Toronto Blue Jays. “[Wednesday] is huge. You never want to lose a series, especially at home,” said Orioles lefty Joe Saunders.

Here's what tonight's bullpen probably looks like after the Orioles' 18-inning game and the call-up of top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy: Long relief Bundy Zach Phillips (L) Middle relief Luis Ayala Brian Matusz (L) Closer Jim Johnson Against the Mariners on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning after starter Wei-Yin Chen was only able to go 5 1/3 innings, Jake Arrieta went 3 1/3 scoreless innings. Matusz faced just two batters and threw 12 pitches, Darren O'Day went 1 2/3, Pedro Strop pitched an inning, Steve Johnson threw three innings, Tommy Hunter threw two and Johnson closed out the win, facing three batters and throwing 13 pitches.

Tonight's the night for readers to show off their knowledge about books -- and have some fun doing it -- at the first Baltimore Blog Trivia night. Read Street has provided some bookish questions for the event, which starts at 7:30 p.m. at No Idea Tavern, 1649 S. Hanover St. in Baltimore. You'll get a chance to compete with local bloggers, their readers and Baltimore Sun staffers. You can bring your own team, or join one. The event is free and open to the public. I guarantee you, if Poe were alive, he'd be there, tossing back a few drinks while firing off answers.