Surplus

Howard County likely will see a $25 million or higher budget surplus for last fiscal year, according to County Council Chairman Christopher J. Merdon, and outgoing County Executive James N. Robey wants to use any extra money to help satisfy a huge looming debt for retiree health benefits. Meanwhile, Jonathon Seeman, county budget director since July last year, left his job Friday to take the same position in Prince George's County, where he lives. Gale Benson will be acting director until a new executive takes office in December, Robey said.

Maryland's thoroughbred racetracks started the year with $2.6 million in surplus purses, something gambling opponents say raises questions about the need for further state subsidies but the industry says is merely a function of the sport's seasonality."

PRESIDENT Clinton justifiably claims credit for the "fiscal discipline" that has brought the nation to a moment of remarkable prosperity. Along with the vibrant economy, carefully managed tax increases and spending cuts will put the nation's checkbook well into the black.Economists suggest the run of good times could last another 15 years, give or take, producing a cumulative surplus of $1 trillion. The publicly held portion of the national debt could be erased by 2015 -- which seems like the fiscal equivalent of finding a cure for cancer.

WASHINGTON - With renewed enthusiasm, Republicans from President Bush on down pressed their case for changes to the Social Security system yesterday, hoping to jump-start a debate that has grown moribund in the face of nearly unanimous Democratic opposition. As Bush talked about progressive indexing and compound interest with actor Ben Stein at Montgomery Blair High School in Silver Spring, Republican senators plugged new legislation to take surplus Social Security funds and parcel them up into individual accounts.

THERE'S A SURPLUS coming! That's the rallying cry in Washington, as both Republicans and Democrats line up to disburse this money even before it is collected. Indeed, that surplus may not arrive for several more years -- if ever. Yet officials are already politicizing the issue and ignoring the true federal budget picture.Yes, this nation's strong economic growth is whittling down the federal deficit faster than anyone expected. Some private economists think a $40 billion surplus is possible by Oct. 1, though a more conventional view is a continuing deficit in the $20 billion to $30 billion range.

County Executive Robert R. Neall introduced a new wrinkle last week in the annual "What surplus?" game when he proposed creating a permanent rainy day budget fund.* Library budget under review Page 4Although the county charter prohibits surpluses, the County Council has built them into every budget since 1984, after the $1.8 million deficit former Executive O. James Lighthizer inherited forced him to renege on contracted union raises.Discussion of the surplus is usually shrouded in confusing lingo like this definition from the annual report on county finances: "Fund balances have generally materialized as a consequence of unexpended departmental appropriations . . .and from conservative revenue estimation."

BEFORE LAWMAKERS get too wound up spending every last dollar in surplus that rolls into the U.S treasury in the years ahead, they ought to think about the consequences.In a miraculous reversal of form, Washington is buzzing not about a whopping budget deficit, but a projected surplus. Thanks to budget belt-tightening and a still-booming economy, the Congressional Budget Office now projects a surplus of $32 billion in 2002; private econo- mists say the continuing strength of the economy could means a surplus as early as next year.

LIKE 60-DEGREE January days in Maryland, balanced budgets at all levels of government have come as a pleasant change from the norm. The Congressional Budget Office projects a future of surpluses for the federal government. Maryland is collecting $260 million more than it plans to spend. And, a $12 million surplus is burning a hole in the pockets of Howard County officialdom.The improved fiscal outlook is good news. But budget decisions can be almost as vexing when there is too much cash as when there is too little.

Baltimore, flush with cash drawn from a once-explosive real estate market, is pro- jecting a $60.6 million budget surplus this year - money likely to be directed to school construction and other quality-of-life initiatives, officials said yesterday. Though the money represents a small portion of the city's $2.3 billion budget, the announcement immediately set off a debate over how the excess would be most wisely spent - with suggestions ranging from a reduction in property taxes to more frequent trash collection.

WASHINGTON - The federal budget surplus is projected to balloon to a staggering $1.87 trillion over the next decade, more than double the 10-year surplus projected by White House budget forecasters four months ago, President Clinton said yesterday. A surge in tax revenues - powered by strong economic growth and improving worker productivity - immediately triggered the kind of Washington horse-trading that is sure to heat up as Election Day approaches and lawmakers scramble for accomplishments they can take to the voters.