Sun Poll

OpinionWorks completed 798 telephone interviews Oct. 15-20 among likely general election voters across Maryland. According to customary statistical standards, this sample produces a margin of error of no more than 3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 percent of the time, the "true" figure would fall within this range if every likely general election voter in Maryland had been interviewed. Margin of sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in this or any other public opinion survey.

As the Nov. 6 election nears, likely Maryland voters are evenly divided on whether to make same-sex marriage legal in the state after opposition has grown in recent weeks, according to a new opinion poll conducted for The Baltimore Sun. Meanwhile, most voters are against Gov. Martin O'Malley's plan to expand gambling in Maryland, the poll found. Voters oppose the measure 54 percent to 39 percent - figures that are virtually unchanged over the past month despite a multimillion-dollar barrage of television ads seeking to sway public opinion.

The Sun poll is the final answer ("Poll finds support for same-sex marriage, but not gambling," Sept. 30)? I don't think so. Same sex marriage, I vote yes. The Dream Act, I vote yes. And the expanded gambling, I vote yes because this will bring jobs to Maryland, and we need jobs. We have too many people out of work. If you allow table games, people will not go to other states. Let's keep the money here. We should have had gambling 12 years ago. Gerald Yamin, Pikesville

The Sun poll is the final answer ("Poll finds support for same-sex marriage, but not gambling," Sept. 30)? I don't think so. Same sex marriage, I vote yes. The Dream Act, I vote yes. And the expanded gambling, I vote yes because this will bring jobs to Maryland, and we need jobs. We have too many people out of work. If you allow table games, people will not go to other states. Let's keep the money here. We should have had gambling 12 years ago. Gerald Yamin, Pikesville

Democratic Rep. Frank Kratovil and Republican challenger Andy Harris are running dead even in Maryland's hottest midterm election contest, a new Baltimore Sun poll shows. The same candidates fought to a near draw two years ago. In the latest poll, each man was favored by 40 percent of likely voters. This year, with control of Congress in play, Maryland's easternmost district features one of the most closely watched, and expensive, House races in the country. Both sides have subjected voters to a heavy dose of negative advertising that has shaped opinions about the candidates.

The first and likely only debate between Sen. Barbara Mikulski and Republican challenger Eric Wargotz appeared unlikely to alter the dynamics of a U.S. Senate contest that seems all but decided. Even as the two met Monday on Maryland Public Television, a new Baltimore Sun poll showed the Democratic incumbent with a nearly 2-to-1 advantage. Wargotz did his best to play on anti-establishment and anti-incumbent sentiment, promising not to be part of the "same old, same old" in Washington.

WHAT A gleeful headline greeted The Sun's readers a week ago today: "Raise Taxes," it declared above a story that a Sun Poll had found that Marylanders overwhelmingly want their taxes raised rather than undergo the horrors of reduced government.More than two-thirds of those responding to the poll indicated they would rather see a combination of tax increases and budget cuts than any attempt to balance the budget through deep cuts in state spending.Inside was an editorial attack on House Speaker Clayton Mitchell for his anti-tax stand, The Sun reminding him that according to its poll, just 18 percent of the electorate supports his position.

The Sun Poll is conducted by Potomac Inc., a nonpartisan, independent firm based in Bethesda. The company has completed 15 statewide surveys for the newspaper since 1998, and it has performed independent surveys for other media outlets since 1986. It is not involved in any of the statewide races for any candidate or political party. Potomac Inc. identifies likely voters by purchasing the most current available data from a commercial vendor, which compiles information from county boards of elections, and creating a call list of those who have voted in previous elections.

In the past, readers have criticized articles based on Sun-sponsored polls of Maryland voters, saying these stories inject the newspaper into the political process by giving the survey results too much prominent play. Recent articles on the latest Sun poll results in the races for governor and U.S. Senate, however, showed a sophisticated level of reporting and presentation that in my view justifies their prominent placement in the newspaper. The Sun's efforts to interview more poll participants added dimension to the numbers.

A majority of Marylanders say they'd vote in November for a new law that would keep most abortions legal here no matter what the Supreme Court decides on the issue, according to the Sun Poll.The survey offers an early reading on Marylanders' view of the issue that probably will be the hottest referendum question on the November ballot. Still ahead, though, is a summer and fall that will be filled with intense campaigning by groups both for and against the measure."There is reason for people to have abortions," says Mary Funk, a poll respondent who agreed to be interviewed later.

THE SUN POLL The Baltimore Sun commissioned a telephone survey of 742 likely Baltimore Democratic primary voters from Aug. 22 to 24. The Sun's pollster, OpinionWorks of Annapolis, used the Baltimore City Board of Elections database to identify registered voters with a history of voting in municipal primary elections, and gathered survey results from those who ranked their likelihood of voting in the upcoming September primary “50-50”...

A majority of Baltimore's most engaged Democrats approve of how Sheila Dixon handled her job as mayor. But they're not keen for a comeback. Dixon, who is barred from running for office this year as part of a plea deal to settle corruption charges, has said she might campaign for mayor in 2015. But while 53 percent of respondents to the Sun Poll said they approve of her work for the city from 2007 to 2010, 54 percent said they would not consider voting her back into the office.

Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake has opened an imposing lead over her challengers with just weeks to go before the Democratic primary, garnering a larger share of likely voters than all of her rivals combined, according to a Baltimore Sun poll. Sixty-eight percent of the respondents approved of the job Rawlings-Blake has done as mayor since she took office last year, and half of those polled said they plan to vote her back for a full four-year term. "She looked at the city's problems and she handled them in a direct manner," said Lawrence Gray, a retired analyst with the Social Security Administration.

While concern about the economy has grown since the last mayoral election, crime remains the top worry among likely voters in Baltimore's Democratic primary next month. Thirty-nine percent of respondents to The Sun Poll rated crime, criminal justice or drugs as the most important challenge facing the city. That is down from 68 percent four years ago. Twenty-eight percent of the respondents ranked the economy, jobs or high taxes as the biggest challenge. "Crime has been an ongoing problem," said Florine Robinson, 76, of Gwynn Oak in Northwest Baltimore.

Once again I feel your Sun poll falls short, as there should be a place to comment to qualify their positions. Concerning the poll question regarding marking of Read's as a special historical site, I feel it reveals not only political expediency with Baltimore City, but also an attitude of foisting their desires onto private entities in regard of funding their whims. Was it not recently that they announced the defunding of the Poe House? To me, both are related to the extent, in the wake of citywide financial challenges, they tend to express a sentiment, then drop the ball of responsibility toward supplying the means that continues to make the future of the site possible.

Democrats are taking advantage of early voting in greater proportion than Republicans, the state elections board reports, suggesting that the party in power is turning out its base more effectively. In the first three days of early voting, registered Democrats, who make up 56 percent of the Maryland electorate, cast 63 percent of the ballots, according to elections board. Republicans, who make up 26 percent of the electorate, cast 27 percent of the ballots. Some good news for the GOP: Republican voters are outpacing Democrats in the 1st Congressional District, where state Sen. Andy Harris is trying to unseat Rep. Frank Kratovil in the Maryland's most competitive House race this year.

Maryland has endured a bruising recession better than many other states, but voters here are still wary over the economy and personal finances, and could punish incumbent politicians at the ballot box next month, a Baltimore Sun survey shows. The Sun survey of 798 likely Maryland voters showed that nearly two-thirds worry about their finances — and one in four say they fret about money every day. More than half of voters say the performance of the economy will influence their voting decisions.

From the Maryland Politics blog: If the Ravens and Redskins met in the Superbowl, more than half of Maryland's likely voters would cheer for the team in purple, a Baltimore Sun poll has found. Of 798 respondents who also answered weightier questions about the governor's race and their financial worries, 51 percent said they'd root for the Ravens while 31 percent would back the Redskins in a theoretical Superbowl matchup. A closer look at the numbers reveals that fans of former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. prefer the Ravens to Redskins by a wider margin than supporters of Gov. Martin O'Malley.