Strategists

DES MOINES -- Like the calm before a storm, Iowa Republicans are somewhat nervously awaiting the next round of television ads by magazine publisher Steve Forbes here, hoping they will not replicate the destructive barrage he unloosed four years ago against 1996 presidential front-runner Bob Dole and other seekers after the GOP nomination.The ads are due within a month, Mr. Forbes' strategists say, and they vow that they will be positive, in contrast to the brutally negative commercials the Forbes campaign ran in 1995-96 that undercut Mr. Dole's chances against President Clinton once he clinched the party nomination.

Investment strategists are hoping for higher oil prices, lucrative energy competition and improved hair dryer sales as they bet on which stocks will help make 1999 another year in the longest-running bull market the nation has seen.The 16-year-old bull seemed to be turning into a bear in August, September and October when an economic meltdown in Russia and Asia and the near collapse of a mammoth hedge fund sent stock prices reeling.In six weeks, the Dow dropped nearly 20 percent from its July 17 high.

WASHINGTON -- It seemed at first out of character -- Hillary Rodham Clinton using pop psychology to explain her marriage, rather than treating the subject with her usual cool detachment. But in an interview in the glossy new magazine Talk, Clinton allies say, the first lady was demonstrating another well-known quality: her political savvy.Democratic strategists say the first lady believed that if she did not confront the issue of her husband's cheating now, the matter would erupt and could hurt her later in a Senate campaign in New York.

WASHINGTON -- Political strategists scrambled yesterday to assess the impact of "Daughtergate" -- Ross Perot's assertion that a Republican smear campaign against his youngest daughter caused him to quit the race in July.With new polls showing support for Mr. Perot leveling off or falling slightly, the Texas billionaire strode unannounced into a news briefing and attacked reporters for questioning his integrity.His bitter tirade was sharply at odds with the relaxed, homespun image Mr. Perot has been projecting in his unprecedented TV ad blitz.

CHICAGO -- Politicians don't do themselves any harm by defending their wives as Bill Clinton did the other night when Jerry Brown accused him of "funneling money" from the state government into Hillary Clinton's law firm.But the governor of Arkansas would be making a mistake if he doesn't understand that there are limits to the number of blows he can absorb without paying the price down the road. Although Clinton is now in a commanding position in the contest for the Democratic nomination, he has not resolved pervasive doubts in the party about his electability.

HOUSTON -- Ross Perot may have lost all credibility, respectability, and surely all electability, but if he waltzes back into the campaign spotlight, as he's hinted at this week, he still has the power to topple this dizzying election year.A number of strategists, including former Perot campaign adviser Ed Rollins, believe the Texas billionaire will somehow reinvigorate his presidential bid as November grows nearer."I don't think he wants to have his epitaph being that he was a quitter," Mr. Rollins said earlier this week in a CBS News interview.

WASHINGTON -- Tomorrow night's presidential debate, the first of the three to be held in the space of eight days, has taken on immense political importance for President Bush. He needs something to happen during the scheduled 90 minutes to detour the widespread impression settling in that his candidacy is dead in the water.As the incumbent, he normally would be taking a considerable risk merely by giving equal billing to his challengers, Democratic nominee Bill Clinton and independent candidate Ross Perot.

HOUSTON -- If you listen to the hot rhetoric at the Republican convention long enough, you can get a clear picture of the lines of attack President Bush intends to take against Democratic nominee Bill Clinton through the rest of the campaign. Those lines fall into two clearly defined categories. The Bush strategists see Mr. Clinton as vulnerable both on his personal history and on his policies and performance as governor of Arkansas for 12 years. But the operative question is which group of issues will be emphasized.

WASHINGTON -- Ross Perot's climb in the polls, which shook the political terrain last week, may be leveling off, strategists in the Clinton campaign say.And some political professionals suggest that his remarkable accusations this weekend of Republican dirty tricks could feed voter doubts about a man criticized in the past as seeing conspiracies all around.But the resurgence of Mr. Perot's candidacy has turned the endgame of this campaign into a very delicate affair. Thus the 1992 presidential campaign is ending as it began, with strategists in both major parties trying to chart, quantify, defuse or turn to their advantage the mercurial candidacy of Ross Perot.

The likely fall campaign between President Bush and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton will be the first electoral collision between the two generations that have dominated American life for the past 45 years.At age 67, Mr. Bush is, in all probability, the last who will be drawn from the "GI generation," presidents who fought as young men in World War II, manned the barricades of the Cold War and who have held the Oval Office without interruption since former President Kennedy captured the presidency more than 31 years ago.If Mr. Clinton, 45, holds on to win the Democratic race, he would become the first presidential nominee from the baby boom -- the 76-million-member generation that has revolutionized America's social mores, but not yet exerted the political influence many of its members have considered their birthright since the turbulent 1960s.

Good riddance. When the clock strikes midnight this New Year's Eve, many will be happy to give a goodbye kiss to one of the worst years in stock market history. The trouble is that the start of 2009 doesn't look as though it will deliver much relief. As Wall Street investment strategists issue outlooks for next year, they are describing the early 2009 economy with such terms as "horrible," "awful" and "dismal," words you rarely see from individuals who tend to be optimists. They see consumers in trouble with debt and job losses, businesses struggling to borrow money and hold onto customers, and cities, counties and states trying to do more with less as pressures on consumers and businesses reduce local tax revenue.

DENVER - When Democratic strategist Paul Begala wrote a $2,300 campaign check to Barack Obama recently, he scribbled in bold letters at the bottom: "FOR NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING ONLY." Obama burst into laughter when he saw the donation, Begala was told. But he and some other strategists won't be amused if Obama ignores their advice. Increasingly nervous about polls that show a dead-even presidential race - and no bounce at all from putting Joe Biden on the ticket - these Democrats say it's time for Obama to escalate his attacks on John McCain or risk blowing an election that should be theirs for the taking.

WASHINGTON -- Out of cash and barely a blip in the early polls, Tom Vilsack quit the Democratic presidential contest yesterday, a move that might ultimately prove more influential than his ill-fated decision to run, party strategists said. The former Iowa governor's pullout removes a cloud over his home-state caucuses. Starting in 1976, the winning candidate in Iowa has gone on to the Democratic nomination in every campaign except two - and one of those was in 1992, when Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin ran and other Democrats bypassed the state.

WASHINGTON -- Republican congressional leaders and President Bush, trying to keep a sex-chat scandal from becoming a lethal election year battering, have turned to a well-worn playbook of damage-control techniques that strategists say could determine whether their party can keep its hold on Congress. The strategies for coping with the Mark Foley affair are familiar to any politician or corporate chieftain faced with scandal: Say you're sorry. Pledge to do better. Blame your opponents. Distance yourself from the transgression.

WASHINGTON -- The Iraq war is the most immediate foreign policy problem besetting the Bush administration. But as a political issue, the White House and top Republican strategists have concluded that the war is a clear winner. Top GOP officials intend to base an important part of the midterm election campaign on talking up the war, using speeches and events to strike a contrast between President Bush's policies and growing disagreement among leading Democrats over whether to support the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops.

Contrarians are prized on Wall Street. And following the consensus is considered a setup for shocks that can damage well-laid investment plans. But as strategists assembled their forecasts for 2006 during the past few weeks, they have been sounding surprisingly similar. Most are predicting another year of modest stock market gains; not unlike 2005's 6 percent increase in the Standard & Poor's 500 index. And strategists remain leery of many of the same factors that loomed over the markets this year: rising interest rates, high energy and commodity prices, overextended consumers, a possible housing bubble, U.S. budget and trade deficits and slowing corporate profits.

ORLANDO, Fla.- In the initial aftermath of John Kerry's smooth performance in his first debate against President Bush, it was easy to forget one thing: Kerry still lags behind Bush in national polls and faces the much tougher challenge at this critical stage of the race in persuading voters that he deserves their support. But after Thursday's Miami face-off, Kerry certainly seemed to have earned himself a second look. Kerry showed an audience of millions Thursday night that he could challenge Bush on the war in Iraq, the president's strongest suit, and may even have redeemed himself in the minds of some voters who wondered whether he could handle being commander in chief.

Sen. John F. Kerry enjoyed at best a modest uptick - if that - in a batch of opinion polls taken after last week's Democratic National Convention, findings consistent with the forecast of most analysts heading into the event. One survey showed President Bush gaining slightly on his Democratic challenger. And the samplings all indicate the presidential contest remains close. Strategists for the two candidates worked to put their own best spin on the latest surveys, but analysts said the results were in line with a political climate in which a great number of voters have already dug in behind their candidate.

DES MOINES -- Like the calm before a storm, Iowa Republicans are somewhat nervously awaiting the next round of television ads by magazine publisher Steve Forbes here, hoping they will not replicate the destructive barrage he unloosed four years ago against 1996 presidential front-runner Bob Dole and other seekers after the GOP nomination.The ads are due within a month, Mr. Forbes' strategists say, and they vow that they will be positive, in contrast to the brutally negative commercials the Forbes campaign ran in 1995-96 that undercut Mr. Dole's chances against President Clinton once he clinched the party nomination.

WASHINGTON -- It seemed at first out of character -- Hillary Rodham Clinton using pop psychology to explain her marriage, rather than treating the subject with her usual cool detachment. But in an interview in the glossy new magazine Talk, Clinton allies say, the first lady was demonstrating another well-known quality: her political savvy.Democratic strategists say the first lady believed that if she did not confront the issue of her husband's cheating now, the matter would erupt and could hurt her later in a Senate campaign in New York.