Primaries

Democrats and Republicans are poised again to pick as their leaders people who are nowhere near the first choice of the voters.On that fateful November night next autumn when the returns are nearing completion, many will not even have gone to the polls. Many of those who did vote will be saying, ''I didn't really want to vote for either one of them.''hTC And the reason will be a 20-year-old reform movement that went bad. Really bad.Here's how to think of the current system. Each party holds a spring primary in each state.

WASHINGTON -- Not content with seeing Texas Gov. George W. Bush riding high as the front-runner in most polls on the public's preference for the 2000 Republican presidential nominee, about 50 present and former GOP congressmen have joined an effort to draft him.The development has given Mr. Bush a nice, fuzzy feeling. His spokesman says he is "honored that fellow Republican elected officials from diverse parts of the country have recognized that he is a principled conservative who has the ability to erase the gender gap and attract record numbers of minority voters."

Rep. Guy Vander Jagt of Michigan is chairman of the House of Representatives committee that advises and supports Republican candidates for the House. On Tuesday he was defeated in a Republican primary. He got only 41 percent of the vote. On the same day, Republican Rep. Dick Nichols of Kansas lost his renomination bid, getting only 34 percent of the vote.Those two outcomes bring to 15 the number of House incumbents who have lost in primaries this year. That is almost double the most recent record -- eight primary losers in 1974 -- and close to the modern era record of 18 in 1946.

THE DEMOCRATIC presidential candidates have a problem and it's not just President Bush. To run a credible primary campaign costs about $25 million. How can a candidate raise that kind of money in a recession when few people believe George Bush is beatable?The solution for the Democrats is to change the rules of the game right now. Two candidates need to join forces and run as a team, a presidential-vice presidential ticket.With the right two candidates, the team would possess tremendous advantages in the primaries.

WASHINGTON -- John Kerry appears to have the Democratic presidential nomination within his grasp after convincing victories in the latest primaries, party strategists and analysts said last night. By sweeping yesterday's Southern elections, the Massachusetts senator has won Democratic contests in every section of the country. He has captured 12 of the first 14 states, mostly by substantial margins, and does not appear to have a serious challenge in upcoming delegate tests. "The race, for all intents and purposes, is locked up," said Steve Richetti, a top Clinton White House aide, who is neutral in the Democratic race.

MIAMI -- The slash-and-burn presidential campaign heads into its biggest day tomorrow, with little chance that either party's fight is about to end.President Bush and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, the winners in South Carolina on Saturday, are widely expected to come away as Super Tuesday's big victors, at least in terms of states and delegates won.But no matter how well they fare, the first decisive tests of the 1992 race still are at least a week away, in...

The House bank scandal claimed its first real victim in Illinois Tuesday. Rep. Charles Hayes lost largely because he was one of the worst abusers of the system, guilty of writing 716 checks for which he had insufficient funds on deposit. Many more victims may yet come to grief.For a disaffected public, Bankgate is only the latest in a long list of transgressions that have brought Congress into disrepute. As a result, the anti-incumbent movement is in full flood -- a product of S&L scandals, the forced resignation of a speaker of the House, sneaky congressional pay raises, the proliferation of perks and the inability of an arrogant Congress to solve problems.

Washington GOV. L. Douglas Wilder of Virginia dropped into Little Rock the other day and came away with the endorsements of some black state legislators on the home ground of one of his rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas.Given place as the first black ever elected to a state governorship, that siccess came as no particular surprise. It is clear that race alone will give him a substantial base in some of the Democratic primaries. But the operative question is whether he can hold a significant share of that support if it becomes apparent he is not a credible competitor for the nomination.

ATLANTA -- Now that the dust has settled, it is clear the Junior Tuesday primaries and caucuses were a bummer for both parties.The message in the Republican results is that President Bush is facing the possibility of serious defections among Repust Bush even in states where Buchanan passed. It is plain that the president's weakness is a function of his own performance, not just the availability of an alternative whose own credibility remains in doubt.The Democrats should be rejoicing at this prospect, but their own picture is little more encouraging.

WASHINGTON -- Gone are the forced smiles, the pained looks. Last night, Bob Dole suddenly seemed on the verge of capturing a prize he has chased through three campaigns over two decades.With his sweep of all eight states holding Republican primaries, the Senate majority leader overcame a rocky start in a race that scarcely a week ago was threatening to crush his presidential dreams once again.Although technically the nomination fight is far from over, Mr. Dole reached the sweet moment last night when he recognized that a sweep of the eight primaries -- and the momentum to follow through the remaining contests -- would be his."