Presidential Nominee

LOS ANGELES -- Political consultants by nature are an optimistic sort, especially when they're talking to reporters about the fortunes of their particular party. Sal Russo, the longtime Republican guru in California, is no exception.When asked about the state of the GOP now that a Democrat, Gray Davis, occupies the governorship for the first time in 16 years, both U.S. senators are Democratic and the congressional delegation and both houses of the state legislature have Democratic majorities, he finds a pony in the pile of manure -- as Ronald Reagan used to say.Mr.

I REALIZE that it's a bit early for me to be making a fearless forecast about next year's presidential campaign. But now that the cream of the Republican congressional leadership has decided that Texas Gov. George W. Bush will be the GOP presidential nominee -- skipping over the fact that he hasn't yet announced and the Iowa caucuses are still nine months away -- we professional political prognosticators must act now.I predict that Mr. Bush will choose a...

SAN DIEGO -- Jack Kemp has taken a dive on the issues of immigration and affirmative action to put himself in line with the views of Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole and the party platform.It was probably a mistake, both in the short run and over the long haul. George Bush never escaped entirely the reputation he acquired in 1980 when he became an overnight and ardent opponent of abortion rights to make himself a comfortable vice presidential nominee for Ronald Reagan.In this case, the conversion is even more dramatic.

MINNEAPOLIS -- Had "Cactus Jack" Garner, FDR's first vice president, been able to watch Al Gore campaigning with Bill Clinton on their latest bus tour that wound up here, he might well have reconsidered his famous evaluation of the job he held for eight years.Garner avowed that the vice presidency was "not worth a bucket of warm spit," and some insist that this was the sanitized version. In any event, the wizened old Texan was only expressing in his earthy way what many vice presidents -- and ordinary citizens as well -- have felt over the years.

ANNAPOLIS -- Gov. William Donald Schaefer, Maryland's No. 1 Democrat, doesn't much like his party's apparent presidential nominee and might not attend its convention this July in New York.DTC "I'll work for the Democratic candidates for Congress, the local Democrats," Mr. Schaefer said.But what about the party's presidential candidate?"I don't know who's running yet," he said, quickly adding, "Now that's a way of getting out of it." He said he thought the nominee could still be someone other than Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton.

WASHINGTON -- Politics is an imitative business. Four years ago George Bush won the presidency by convincing voters he was not Michael S. Dukakis. Bill Clinton is following exactly the same strategy this year.That is the message the Democratic presidential nominee has been sending so insistently in the two weeks since the convention: I am not Michael Dukakis.In 1988, Dukakis left his convention for a brief foray into Texas with his vice presidential nominee, Lloyd Bentsen, and then retired to the bucolic pleasures of western Massachusetts and the heavy burdens of state government.

PORTLAND, Maine -- Some 15,000 Democrats will gather tomorrow in 450 schools, town halls and fire stations for precinct caucuses that will have almost nothing to do with the final selection of a presidential nominee -- unless Paul E. Tsongas stumbles.The former senator from Massachusetts is heavily favored to follow in the footsteps of Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980, Gary Hart in 1984 and Michael S. Dukakis in 1988 by converting his success in the New Hampshire primary into another success here.

GOV. BILL CLINTON's nationally televised speech in which hedenied having an improper relationship with a woman was often refered to as another "Nixon Checkers speech."This reference may have escaped some younger readers. The original Checkers speech was delivered nearly 40 years ago. In that speech Richard Nixon denied having an improper relationship with a cocker spaniel. Let me re-phrase that. Nixon denied having an improper relationship with businessmen. More on the mutt later.In 1952, then Senator Nixon was the Republican vice presidential nominee on the ticket with Gen. Dwight Eisenhower.

The Miller Center Commission at the University of Virginia has just issued a timely reminder to Americans about the importance of what Gov. Bill Clinton and Ross Perot are about to do: select running mates.The commission, chaired by former vice presidential nominee Edmund Muskie and former Maryland Sen. Charles McC. Mathias, devoted a couple of years to studying how vice presidents have been chosen and made recommendations about how they should be chosen.The commission pointed out that since 1945 three vice presidents have become presidents due to death or resignation and five of the last nine vice presidents have become presidents either by accession or election.

NOW THAT those two old pals, Virginia's Gov. L. Douglas Wilder and Sen. Charles Robb, have informed the world that there never really was any feud going on between them, they may be naive enough to believe that they can walk away unscarred from the sorry spectacle of their public alley fight.For openers, the prospects of each for a place on the 1992 Democratic national ticket surely are dimmed not only by the publicity given to rumors about their personal lives but also by their displays of personal vindictiveness and pettiness, and their disregard for the reputation of their party.

You can argue all you want about the wisdom of Gov. Sarah Palin as a vice presidential nominee - and online America has been doing just that. To the independent political bloggers, she is catnip - a source for endless comment on whether she's unqualified to be a heartbeat from the presidency or an authentic, inspirational fresh face on the national political scene. The more she's avoided traditional media, the more the new media have moved in to dissect and define her. And the attention will intensify this week in preparation for Thursday's vice presidential debate.

Tonight Convention keynote address by former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia. Headliner: Sen. Hillary Clinton Additional speakers include: House Democratic Leader Steny H. Hoyer, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski, dean of Senate women. Tomorrow Nomination of Sen. Barack Obama and vice presidential nominee. Headliner: Vice presidential nominee Sen. Joe Biden Additional speakers include: Former President Bill Clinton and 2004 presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry.

I hope the Democratic National Committee doesn't blow the election for Sen. Barack Obama. On paper, this seems to be a can't-lose year for the Democrats. If peace and prosperity are election winners, what are war and economic anxiety? Party registration trends favor the Democrats, too. And in Mr. Obama, they have a candidate whose person, biography and rhetoric all point to the possibility of breaking away from the poisonous partisanship of recent decades. Unfortunately, Mr. Obama is backed by a committee that seems to be stuck in the old "wedge issue" politics that elected Republicans in seven of the last 10 presidential contests.

Maryland voters get their rare chance to have an impact in a presidential primary today, particularly on the Democratic side, where Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in an exceptionally tight race. Along with serious challenges against incumbent Reps. Wayne T. Gilchrest and Albert R. Wynn in the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, there's ample motivation for a record-setting turnout at the polls. The reality, of course, is that "record-setting" doesn't have to be all that high.

It is possible, some say probable, that a former New York City mayor will be running for president in November 2008, as the nominee of the Republican Party. And it is not impossible, some say, that the present New York mayor will be the presidential nominee for a serious and well-financed independent bid. The "possible" is Republican Rudolph W. Giuliani. The "not impossible" is ex-Democrat, ex-Republican independent Michael R. Bloomberg. Six leading national pollsters in August put Giuliani well ahead of John McCain, Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney.

Do long-shot presidential candidates Dennis J. Kucinich, a Democrat, and Ron Paul, a Libertarian-turned-Republican, play any useful role in their respective parties' nomination contests? Clearly, the likelihood of either of these two congressmen being nominated is roughly equivalent to my chances of starting at left tackle for the Ravens this season. Nor is either man even a viable contestant in the informal race to be tapped as their party's 2008 vice presidential nominee - as, say, Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico or former Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas are. Some of their positions place them outside the partisan mainstream, and their general demeanor is politely if aptly described as "quirky."

Lloyd Bentsen, the former four-term U.S. senator who was the 1988 Democratic vice presidential nominee and served as President Bill Clinton's first secretary of the treasury, died yesterday. He was 85. Mr. Bentsen, who had been in ill health since suffering two strokes in 1998, died at his home in Houston, a family spokesman said. In a statement yesterday, President Bush called Mr. Bentsen "a man of great honor and distinction." During his 22 years in the Senate, the tall, courtly millionaire was known for his generally conservative voting record on foreign policy and economic issues while maintaining a more moderate position on many social issues.

BOSTON - If humorist Will Rogers were alive today and in Boston, he might want to take back his famous comment: "I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat." Except for the unpleasantness of threatened picketing by unionized city police dissatisfied with an arbitrated wage settlement, the Democrats holding their national convention here this week appear to have their political act together. With the presidential nominee, hometown Sen. John Kerry, and his running mate, Sen. John Edwards, in place, the self-styled "party of the people" seems as much at peace with itself as it has been in years.

WASHINGTON - As prospective Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry approached his choice of a vice presidential running mate, he was faced with a familiar challenge: Should he pick an individual who could help him win in November or one who, if he wins, could help him govern most effectively? It's customary for a presidential nominee to quote the standard platitude that he is looking for the ticket mate who is "best qualified to take over the country if anything should happen me." It is a yardstick more often than not bypassed as a candidate looks for the one who figures to help him carry a certain region or state or fill some real or perceived weakness in his own political rM-isumM-i.

CHICAGO - John Kerry is looking for a running mate, and he's getting lots of advice: Pick North Carolina Sen. John Edwards to make the ticket competitive in the South. Pick Rep. Richard A. Gephardt to energize organized labor. Pick Sen. Bob Graham to bolster support in the key swing state of Florida. Here's my advice to Mr. Kerry on choosing a running mate: Don't. It's an inescapable fact that a presidential nominee has to have a vice presidential nominee, though many would have been happy to do without.