Low Inflation

Easy money and low inflation have combined to undermine the value of buying a house with a fixed-rate mortgage, a conclusion that might surprise home buyers who rapidly have been bidding up house prices in recent years. But a new economic report suggests the financial advantages of buying a home today are the lowest they have been since 1970, and the analysis suggests that low-income families are taking greater risks in buying a house as an investment than are high-income households. "The new housing game is more dangerous and seems less intended to build security for the future," wrote Robert Brusca, chief economist at Facts and Opinion Economics in New York.

Low inflation is a welcome economic sign for spenders, but for savers, it can be too much of a good thing. The effect of super low inflation could be seen in recent days when the government announced changes to savings bond rates and retirement account limits that are pegged to inflation. Savers can now expect meager returns on the inflation-protected Series I Savings Bonds, if they even still want to buy them. And employees won't be able to sock away more next year in a 401(k)

Ruth Nophlin doesn't need Alan Greenspan to tell her about the economy. She has lived it. In four years, the 43-year-old Northeast Baltimore woman has gone from being thrown out of a job when London Fog moved its manufacturing operations overseas to taking computer classes to working as an office supervisor for a Towson technical training company. Now, she has more work than she can handle and earns more money than she ever has. Part of the credit for her recovery goes to Nophlin's resilience.

Investors and economists worry about higher inflation, but the more immediate concern is inflation that's flat or even negative. Retirement contributions, Social Security and pension checks, as well as certain tax breaks, are tied to inflation. And when inflation is flat or negative - which it is for the first time since the 1950s - that could mean no increases in Social Security checks and even smaller pension checks for millions of retirees. And it could restrict the amount you can sock away in your 401(k)

Investors and economists worry about higher inflation, but the more immediate concern is inflation that's flat or even negative. Retirement contributions, Social Security and pension checks, as well as certain tax breaks, are tied to inflation. And when inflation is flat or negative - which it is for the first time since the 1950s - that could mean no increases in Social Security checks and even smaller pension checks for millions of retirees. And it could restrict the amount you can sock away in your 401(k)

A Columbia University economist was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics yesterday - worth $1.37 million - for his paradigm-shifting work showing that reducing inflation wouldn't necessarily lead to higher unemployment - a key tenet of Federal Reserve policy since the 1980s. Edmund S. Phelps, 73, was honored for his challenge to a post-World War II notion that low inflation and low unemployment couldn't exist simultaneously. That notion was embodied in the so-called Phillips curve. Phelps, however, theorized in the 1960s that the drivers of inflation go beyond the level of employment and wages.

AT THIS point, saying that U.S. investors are whistling past the graveyard does seem a little bit like saying "this television thing is just a gimmick. It'll never take off," but what can I say? U.S. investors are whistling past the graveyard.The seemingly irresistible flow of money into mutual funds, the exaltation of large-cap stocks into supposedly risk-free investments, and the now almost laughable discounting of present troubles in favor of a brighter future that's purportedly just around the corner have combined to create a growth in stock prices that is out of all proportion to the growth in actual earnings.

NEW YORK -- The economy made its strongest showing in six years during the final three months of 1993, growing at an annual rate of 5.9 percent and showing reassuring signs of low inflation, the government reported yesterday.Economists warned that the Commerce Department's numbers were an aberration. The economy is almost certainly already backing off that torrid pace, they said, and inflation is likely to grow more quickly this year than the numbers indicate."Everything fell into place for the economy," said Robert Dederick, chief economist at Northern Trust.

NEW YORK -- As Wall Street traders, economists and analysts left for Labor Day vacations yesterday, their departure seemed more a flight than the start of a long weekend."

ARE YOU CURIOUS to know where the Dow Jones industrial average will close on Dec. 31? Some Ticker contestants' views may point the way."I say 7,950. Low inflation, high employment." (Jonte Hawkins.)"7,210, because too many people are in stocks just for the ride, have no memory of past recessions." (Judith Rourke.)"Baby boomers continue to fund 401(k) plans as economy grows with low inflation. I pick 9,416." (Ernie Ellis.)"I remember the 1929 crash, when they jumped out of windows, but it's different this time.

A Columbia University economist was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics yesterday - worth $1.37 million - for his paradigm-shifting work showing that reducing inflation wouldn't necessarily lead to higher unemployment - a key tenet of Federal Reserve policy since the 1980s. Edmund S. Phelps, 73, was honored for his challenge to a post-World War II notion that low inflation and low unemployment couldn't exist simultaneously. That notion was embodied in the so-called Phillips curve. Phelps, however, theorized in the 1960s that the drivers of inflation go beyond the level of employment and wages.

QUESTIONS the Senate Banking Committee should (but probably won't) ask Ben Bernanke, the economist nominated to replace Alan Greenspan as head of the Federal Reserve: Mr. Bernanke, you are an eloquent enemy of traditional inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. But what about the so-called NEW inflation - stocks, homes and other assets that soar in value even as global competition keeps traditional, store-shelf inflation tame? Will you try to identify "bubbles" in these asset markets and pop them with steep interest rates for the greater good?

Easy money and low inflation have combined to undermine the value of buying a house with a fixed-rate mortgage, a conclusion that might surprise home buyers who rapidly have been bidding up house prices in recent years. But a new economic report suggests the financial advantages of buying a home today are the lowest they have been since 1970, and the analysis suggests that low-income families are taking greater risks in buying a house as an investment than are high-income households. "The new housing game is more dangerous and seems less intended to build security for the future," wrote Robert Brusca, chief economist at Facts and Opinion Economics in New York.

WASHINGTON - To almost no one's surprise, the Federal Reserve Bank nudged interest rates up another quarter-point to 2.5 percent yesterday. What instead set Wall Street chattering is the environment in which policy-makers made their decision: less-than-robust hiring and relatively low inflation. "If they were listening to me, they would not be raising interest rates today," economist Ray Perryman said. "The economy is not at the level we would call robust yet. The danger is every time you raise interest rates, you make investment look unprofitable."

Ruth Nophlin doesn't need Alan Greenspan to tell her about the economy. She has lived it. In four years, the 43-year-old Northeast Baltimore woman has gone from being thrown out of a job when London Fog moved its manufacturing operations overseas to taking computer classes to working as an office supervisor for a Towson technical training company. Now, she has more work than she can handle and earns more money than she ever has. Part of the credit for her recovery goes to Nophlin's resilience.

AT THIS point, saying that U.S. investors are whistling past the graveyard does seem a little bit like saying "this television thing is just a gimmick. It'll never take off," but what can I say? U.S. investors are whistling past the graveyard.The seemingly irresistible flow of money into mutual funds, the exaltation of large-cap stocks into supposedly risk-free investments, and the now almost laughable discounting of present troubles in favor of a brighter future that's purportedly just around the corner have combined to create a growth in stock prices that is out of all proportion to the growth in actual earnings.

WANT TO KNOW where the stock market will go this year? Some Dow Jones contestants' views may point the way:"My prediction of Dow Jones 7,412 is as good as any stock broker's, because if they can predict the market so great, why do they have to work for a living? Me, I'm retired." (Henry Seim.)"I am 12 years old and just bought my first stock My year-end Dow Jones number is 7,535." (Paul Hugus.)"Low interest rates and low inflation, high profits lead to a similar percentage gain, as in 1996 -- that's 8,261."

NEW YORK -- It was reassuring for many to hear Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve System, say that the current American economic performance was about the most impressive thing he has seen in 50 years of daily numbers-watching. "Strong growth and low inflation" were the numbers he cited.But there are other people watching other numbers who raise fundamental questions about what is actually going on in these boom-boom-booming times. The numbers people at the U.S. Department of Labor, for instance, report this:While median earnings for college graduates increased by 12 percent from 1980 to 1996, the median earnings of high school graduates declined by 6 percent.

WASHINGTON -- Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy soared in June to its highest level in three decades, suggesting that strong spending will help cushion a worsening outlook for manufacturing and exports to Asia.The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence, released yesterday, rose to 137.6 this month from 136.3 in May, propelled by an abundance of jobs, low interest rates, low inflation and stock market gains, the New York-based business research group said.Factory activity in the Midwest slowed in June, according to the National Association of Purchasing Management, suggesting a broader slowdown in U.S. manufacturing.

NEW YORK -- It was reassuring for many to hear Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve System, say that the current American economic performance was about the most impressive thing he has seen in 50 years of daily numbers-watching. "Strong growth and low inflation" were the numbers he cited.But there are other people watching other numbers who raise fundamental questions about what is actually going on in these boom-boom-booming times. The numbers people at the U.S. Department of Labor, for instance, report this:While median earnings for college graduates increased by 12 percent from 1980 to 1996, the median earnings of high school graduates declined by 6 percent.