Index

WASHINGTON -- Mortgage applications fell to the lowest level since April, reflecting fewer home purchases and less refinancing, a survey shows. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of applications declined 7.9 percent to 679.1 in the week that ended Oct. 21, the fourth decline in five weeks. The index stood at 737.5 the previous week. The association's measure of home purchases dropped 7.4 percent, the biggest decline since June, and mortgage refinancing fell 8.5 percent. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage stayed above 6 percent for a second straight week.

THE CONFERENCE BOARD reports that its index of consumer confidence, which measures consumers' willingness to spend, declined in July. The index dropped 3.4 points to 135.6, from a revised 139 in June. The larger-than-expected downturn followed eight months of consecutive gains in the index, which had culminated in a 30-year high and followed the Federal Reserve's move to nudge up interest rates.Is the drop just a blip after several record months, or does it signify a more pronounced slowing in the economy?

With the S&P 500 stock index up 4.1 percent last month -- and the Dow Jones industrial average ahead 1.9 percent and the Nasdaq composite up a hefty 14.2 percent -- the "January Barometer" offers an optimistic outlook for the year.The 1999 Stock Trader's Almanac says, "Since 1950 the January Barometer predicted the annual market direction with amazing accuracy. Whether the S&P 500 index was up or down in January, 43 out of 48 times the entire year followed suit -- a 90 percent batting average!"

To answer an often asked question: No, this year's young-of-the- year index for rockfish will not have any impact on the fall fishery this year or next year and most likely not in 1993.Why?Glad you asked. Let's take it from the top.Last October, limited fisheries were reinstituted under guidelines approved by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, a federal group charged with equitable allocation of rockfish along the East Coast. Guidelines required that the young-of-the-year index reach a three-year average of at least 8.0 before the fishery could be reopened.

Nobody likes to hear the bad news that he paid too much for his house. Or that their neighborhood is 20 percent overvalued and prone to downward adjustment. But a group of economists who are in the business of assessing financial risk have come up with a new statistical tool they say detects real estate price bloat. The new tool is called the Valuation Index, and it was released for the first time Tuesday by PMI Group of Walnut Creek, Calif., one of the largest insurers of home mortgages.

The astonishing 1995 bull market roared on again yesterday, with most popular averages reaching record highs.The Dow Jones industrial average closed at its 44th peak this year, surging 46.69 points to finish at 4,727.29, now 893 points, or 23 percent, above its Jan. 1 level.WALL ST. WISDOM: "Bonds are the house you live in." (Milton F. Westheimer, my father, a Baltimore stock broker many decades ago.)INDEX POWER: "What a year for the humdrum index funds that simply track the S&P 500-stock index!

The Dow Jones industrial average extended Tuesday's 46-point loss yesterday, but, as one local broker put it, "It could have been much worse." After plunging 53 points by lunchtime, the Dow index staged a partial recovery during the afternoon, closing off 13.79 points at 3,787.34.CONTEST LEADERS: Speaking of stocks, here are names of the Dow Jones contest leaders as of the close of trading on Friday, Sept. 30 -- the end of the year's third quarter -- when the blue-chip index finished at 3,843.

The Baltimore area economy continued to slow in the 1990 fourth quarter, according to a study issued by Grant Thornton, a national accounting and management consulting firm with a local office.The Grant Thornton Index, consisting of seven equally weighted economic indicators, fell 0.65 points in Baltimore in the last three months of the year, hitting 108.7. This marked the fourth quarterly decline in the index for Baltimore since the end of 1989, when the index was at 110.5.The drop of 0.65 points was sharper than the drop of 0.23 in the third quarter.

An index of future economic activity rose to a record high in June, but analysts dismissed the report yesterday as stale news that already has been eclipsed by subsequent developments.The Conference Board said that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.5 point in June to 102.9, the highest ever under the index's current formula, which is changed periodically. That follows a rise of 0.2 point in May and 0.3 in April.The index is designed to forecast economic action six to nine months in advance.