Forecasters

Marylanders can expect some snow later today as an "Alberta Clipper" sweeps across the region. But forecasters posted no snow advisories for the metro area, and no panic seemed warranted. Forecasters expected snow to start around sunrise west of the mountains, reaching the I-95 corridor in late morning or early afternoon. High temperatures today should reach the mid-30s, reducing possible accumulation on the roads. An inch of snow is possible during the day, with another half-inch or less likely in the evening.

MIAMI -- Hurricane Floyd is expected to billow into a major storm this weekend as it cruises the Atlantic -- and turns sharply toward the Southeast, forecasters said yesterday.No land mass is likely to be endangered before early next week, but forecasters believe that Floyd is destined to strike the East Coast, possibly with winds in excess of 120 mph.They are advising coastal residents to prepare."Floridians should make good use of this weekend to review their hurricane plan in the event that Hurricane Floyd becomes a serious threat," said Max Mayfield, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in west Miami-Dade.

The dry weather that has dogged Maryland's farmers for the past three summers seems likely to persist into the next one, according to one of the federal government's top forecasters.Ants Leetmaa, director of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, said the temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean that set the region up for last summer's drought are continuing.Leetmaa said that although scientists aren't as confident about their long-range spring and summer forecasts as they are of their fall and winter predictions, "the likelihood of drought for the eastern half of the country is pretty good."

Heat and humidity are once again rolling across the mid-Atlantic states, causing another round of urban heat advisories and Code Red ozone alerts in Maryland today and worsening a drought already considered the second-worst in state history.Yesterday's high of 96 degrees at Baltimore-Washington International Airport was not a record, but weather forecasters expect more of the same, with highs reaching at least 90 degrees until the end of the week.Forecasters are worried about drought, not the heat.

Keep your shovels handy. Maryland could get at least a couple of inches more snow by Friday.Even as Marylanders were digging out yesterday from their third-deepest snowfall of the century, weather forecasters were picking up early warnings that another storm might be headed this way.It's too early to be sure, but indications are that the new snowstorm -- if it hits at all -- will be tame compared with the blizzard that buried the region over the weekend.The...

AS USUAL, there weren't apologies for the botched weather forecasts on July 4. The Weather Service (ultimately answering to the Commerce Department, which Speaker Newt wants to eliminate) and various private forecasters predicted "scattered showers" throughout the day, while parade officials, fireworks people and thousands of celebrants contended with an afternoon-long deluge.But then late Monday, July 3, the forecasters predicted a line of thunder showers passing over Carroll County and northern Baltimore County.

When hurricane season starts Thursday, the National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Fla., will be trading in experience for technology in predicting where killer storms are heading.After years of waiting, the hurricane center is suddenly awash in new equipment and capability. A weather satellite launched last year is ready for this hurricane season and should give meteorologists more accurate ways to track storms.New supercomputers can do more calculations faster on sophisticated programs that better predict where storms are going based on changing climates.

For the first time in three years, fall is not bringing a powerful burst of growth to the U.S. economy. It is a decisive sign, many economists, government officials and business executives say, that the strongest days of the recovery from the 1991 recession may be in the past."

A caption in Wednesday's Maryland section of The Sun misidentified the National Weather Service forecaster receiving a mayor's citation.Amet Figueroa received the citation, while Fred Davis (left) and Ken Shaver (right) looked on.The Sun regrets the errors.PTCWhen the National Weather Service predicted a "light dusting" of snow on Feb. 18, 1979, the forecast turned into a nightmare that some people still won't let meteorologist Fred Davis forget."We got 24 inches. One of the guys who worked at the airport said, 'Boy, you guys missed that one by a mile.

The Blizzard of '93 slathered the Atlantic coast in 10 to 50 inches of snow, scattered record lows from Florida to upstate New York, fanned winds up to 110 mph, poured a quick-freezing mix of snow and hail on Baltimore, blocked interstate highways, sank ships and caused at least 193 deaths.It was a monster, a killer, a once-in-a-century snowstorm. But it did a lot less damage than it might have because people had plenty of time to get out of its way.What made that early warning possible, said Robert Derouin, deputy chief of meteorological operations at the National Weather Service's National Meteorological Center, is bigger computers, more raw data and a better understanding of how to put the two together to accurately mimic the daily clash of forces in the atmosphere.

Paul Manacher of Baltimore says our local forecasters are "usually accurate." But he asks why they "invariably underestimate summer high temperatures." The NWS warning coordination meteorologist for our area, Chris Strong, says his forecasters' predictions last summer averaged a quarter-degree too high for BWI. But they underestimated downtown highs by 3 degrees. Strong says they are not allowing for enough "heat island" effect -- heat absorbed, reflected or re-emitted by buildings and pavement.

Marylanders can expect some snow later today as an "Alberta Clipper" sweeps across the region. But forecasters posted no snow advisories for the metro area, and no panic seemed warranted. Forecasters expected snow to start around sunrise west of the mountains, reaching the I-95 corridor in late morning or early afternoon. High temperatures today should reach the mid-30s, reducing possible accumulation on the roads. An inch of snow is possible during the day, with another half-inch or less likely in the evening.

Just as Americans are beginning to think about the sunny seashore, federal hurricane forecasters were back yesterday, clouding the horizon with another ominous prediction for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. Experts at the Climate Prediction Center said unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and influences from the Pacific more favorable to storm development mean that Gulf and Atlantic coast residents should brace for above-average hurricane activity this season, which starts June 1. Their forecast calls for 13 to 17 named storms this year, with seven to 10 gaining hurricane strength and three to five becoming Category 3 storms, with top sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.

With El Nino no longer running interference, we can expect more hurricanes and tropical storms this summer, forecasters say. Scientists at Colorado State University say the dissipation of the El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific in recent months is likely to bring more hurricanes sweeping up the Atlantic coast beginning in June. Whether the culprit is global climate change or cyclical patterns, this year's hurricane season is likely to be a bad one, the forecasters say. "We are predicting a very active season this year," said Philip J. Klotzbach, a research associate in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.

Lots of us face work evaluations. Jerry Nook in Edgewood wonders, "Do forecasters keep tabs on the accuracy of their forecasts?" They do. The National Weather Service tracks performance on temperature and precipitation, by station and forecaster. Nationally, at 24 hours, they're accurate (within 3 degrees) 73 percent of the time, up from 61 percent in 1976. A week in advance, that drops to 39 percent. Will it rain? NWS forecasters are right 88 percent of the time at 24 hours, slipping only to 81 percent at one week.

Central Maryland is waking up to forecasts of the first significant snowfall of the season - a storm arriving as early as tonight, at the start of what historically has been one of Baltimore's snowiest weeks. The storm cranked up in the Southwest over the weekend and is sweeping up Gulf Coast moisture, preparing to fling it into the cold air entrenched over most of the Northeast. Forecasters weren't sure late yesterday where the rain/snow line will form, or how much snow the Baltimore and Washington metropolitan areas should expect.

You prayed for rain to end the drought and water the tomatoes. But not this. And surely not at the start of the long Labor Day weekend. Ernesto, which fizzled in Florida, is bearing down on Maryland with what forecasters say could be half a foot or more of rain, flash floods, bay shore flooding and even a tornado before the tropical storm begins to clear the region Saturday. "Right now we're anticipating 5 to 10 inches of rain as a broad forecast for the region," said David Manning, warning coordinator for the National Weather Service's forecast office in Sterling, Va. "Tropical systems are very efficient rain producers."

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- Officials at the National Hurricane Center have long confessed they aren't very good at predicting a storm's intensity. Tropical Storm Chris confirmed that. The system once predicted to be a Category 1 hurricane deflated to a tropical blob yesterday. "We've said all along that intensity forecasting is our greatest challenge," said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the hurricane center, which is in Miami-Dade County. "This points out again that we have a ways to go."

It could be winter's last gasp. Or a wet and sloppy welcome to spring 2006, which arrived just after lunchtime yesterday. Whatever you label it, forecasters said the daylong snow, sleet and freezing rain they're expecting in Baltimore today doesn't look like much to worry about - an inch or two on the grass and little or no accumulation on the streets - barring any surprises. Two to 4 inches are possible from Washington County west, with a possible impact on the morning commute. "It is March, and there's no shock or surprise about this kind of weather through March," said Jackie Hale, a spokeswoman at the National Weather Service's Sterling, Va., forecast office.

The National Weather Service has posted flood watches through Saturday for much of Maryland, northern Virginia and the District of Columbia, wrapping up a significantly wetter March than usual, forecasters said. The flood watch covers most Maryland counties and will be in effect until 8 p.m. Saturday. As a low-pressure system over the Gulf Coast this morning intensifies and reaches the Mid-Atlantic, rain is expected to develop in Maryland early tonight, becoming heavy at times later this evening.