NEWS
By FRANK ROYLANCE | April 25, 2008
Paul Manacher of Baltimore says our local forecasters are "usually accurate." But he asks why they "invariably underestimate summer high temperatures." The NWS warning coordination meteorologist for our area, Chris Strong, says his forecasters' predictions last summer averaged a quarter-degree too high for BWI. But they underestimated downtown highs by 3 degrees. Strong says they are not allowing for enough "heat island" effect -- heat absorbed, reflected or re-emitted by buildings and pavement.
NEWS
By FRANK ROYLANCE | December 5, 2007
Marylanders can expect some snow later today as an "Alberta Clipper" sweeps across the region. But forecasters posted no snow advisories for the metro area, and no panic seemed warranted. Forecasters expected snow to start around sunrise west of the mountains, reaching the I-95 corridor in late morning or early afternoon. High temperatures today should reach the mid-30s, reducing possible accumulation on the roads. An inch of snow is possible during the day, with another half-inch or less likely in the evening.
NEWS
By Frank D. Roylance | May 23, 2007
Just as Americans are beginning to think about the sunny seashore, federal hurricane forecasters were back yesterday, clouding the horizon with another ominous prediction for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. Experts at the Climate Prediction Center said unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and influences from the Pacific more favorable to storm development mean that Gulf and Atlantic coast residents should brace for above-average hurricane activity this season, which starts June 1. Their forecast calls for 13 to 17 named storms this year, with seven to 10 gaining hurricane strength and three to five becoming Category 3 storms, with top sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
NEWS
By Dennis O'Brien | April 4, 2007
With El Nino no longer running interference, we can expect more hurricanes and tropical storms this summer, forecasters say. Scientists at Colorado State University say the dissipation of the El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific in recent months is likely to bring more hurricanes sweeping up the Atlantic coast beginning in June. Whether the culprit is global climate change or cyclical patterns, this year's hurricane season is likely to be a bad one, the forecasters say. "We are predicting a very active season this year," said Philip J. Klotzbach, a research associate in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.
NEWS
By FRANK ROYLANCE | April 1, 2007
Lots of us face work evaluations. Jerry Nook in Edgewood wonders, "Do forecasters keep tabs on the accuracy of their forecasts?" They do. The National Weather Service tracks performance on temperature and precipitation, by station and forecaster. Nationally, at 24 hours, they're accurate (within 3 degrees) 73 percent of the time, up from 61 percent in 1976. A week in advance, that drops to 39 percent. Will it rain? NWS forecasters are right 88 percent of the time at 24 hours, slipping only to 81 percent at one week.
NEWS
By Frank D. Roylance | February 12, 2007
Central Maryland is waking up to forecasts of the first significant snowfall of the season - a storm arriving as early as tonight, at the start of what historically has been one of Baltimore's snowiest weeks. The storm cranked up in the Southwest over the weekend and is sweeping up Gulf Coast moisture, preparing to fling it into the cold air entrenched over most of the Northeast. Forecasters weren't sure late yesterday where the rain/snow line will form, or how much snow the Baltimore and Washington metropolitan areas should expect.
NEWS
By Frank D. Roylance | August 31, 2006
You prayed for rain to end the drought and water the tomatoes. But not this. And surely not at the start of the long Labor Day weekend. Ernesto, which fizzled in Florida, is bearing down on Maryland with what forecasters say could be half a foot or more of rain, flash floods, bay shore flooding and even a tornado before the tropical storm begins to clear the region Saturday. "Right now we're anticipating 5 to 10 inches of rain as a broad forecast for the region," said David Manning, warning coordinator for the National Weather Service's forecast office in Sterling, Va. "Tropical systems are very efficient rain producers."
NEWS
By KEN KAYE | August 4, 2006
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- Officials at the National Hurricane Center have long confessed they aren't very good at predicting a storm's intensity. Tropical Storm Chris confirmed that. The system once predicted to be a Category 1 hurricane deflated to a tropical blob yesterday. "We've said all along that intensity forecasting is our greatest challenge," said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the hurricane center, which is in Miami-Dade County. "This points out again that we have a ways to go."
NEWS
By FRANK D. ROYLANCE | March 21, 2006
It could be winter's last gasp. Or a wet and sloppy welcome to spring 2006, which arrived just after lunchtime yesterday. Whatever you label it, forecasters said the daylong snow, sleet and freezing rain they're expecting in Baltimore today doesn't look like much to worry about - an inch or two on the grass and little or no accumulation on the streets - barring any surprises. Two to 4 inches are possible from Washington County west, with a possible impact on the morning commute. "It is March, and there's no shock or surprise about this kind of weather through March," said Jackie Hale, a spokeswoman at the National Weather Service's Sterling, Va., forecast office.
NEWS
By Baltimoresun.com Staff | April 1, 2005
The National Weather Service has posted flood watches through Saturday for much of Maryland, northern Virginia and the District of Columbia, wrapping up a significantly wetter March than usual, forecasters said. The flood watch covers most Maryland counties and will be in effect until 8 p.m. Saturday. As a low-pressure system over the Gulf Coast this morning intensifies and reaches the Mid-Atlantic, rain is expected to develop in Maryland early tonight, becoming heavy at times later this evening.