El Nino

The last four months of hurricane season could be busy ones in the Atlantic Ocean, with government forecasters raising their expectations to an 85 percent chance of a normal or above-normal season. The Atlantic could be in for three to six hurricanes, two or three of them major hurricanes, through November, according to an updated forecast the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released Thursday. Major hurricanes rank 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

Severe weather has quieted, so there's not much else for meteorologists to chat about but a few guessing games. And AccuWeather severe weather blogger Henry Margusity's hunch is that there is a link between this month's heat waves across the U.S. and the climatic phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO, which measures the atmospheric pressure difference between the typical low pressure system near Iceland and high pressure south of the Azores, hit its lowest point since 1950 in June, an AccuWeather reader pointed out to Margusity.

The world is on an El Nino watch, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. The global climate pattern is well-known for an inundation of snow it can bring the Baltimore area, though its impacts can be varied. There is a 50 percent chance it could arrive for the first time since 2009 by next winter, according to the climate center. Whether an El Nino is declared depends on surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Warmer-than-normal temperatures bring on El Nino, while cooler-than-normal temperatures lead to La Nina.

AccuWeather.com is predicting an active summer for severe storms in Maryland, but not any prolonged heat spells, according to its summer weather outlook released Thursday. Storms are expected to ride along the northeastern edge of hot-weather systems as they move from the Great Lakes toward the mid-Atlantic, a pattern meteorologists call "ring of fire" storms. In the early and middle parts of summer, in particular, the storms could bring damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes. But blocking patterns over Canada and Greenland are expected to push long-lasting heat toward the Ohio Valley.

If you liked last winter in Central Maryland - pretty cold, but with below-average snow - you may get a chance to live it over again this winter. Forecasters at AccuWeather.com say the country is in for a second La Nina winter in a row, with brutal cold and snow across the northern tier of states. For Central Maryland, the annual pre-season forecast calls for no worse than near- to "slightly below-average" snowfall, but with some risk of a few "significant" snow or ice events.

After a pretty cold December for Baltimore and a very cold start to January, some Marylanders have begun to wonder what's going on with the weather this winter. "Why so cold this year?" asked Juan Damien, a reader of the Sun's WeatherBlog at MarylandWeather.com. "Jet stream? El Nino? Any indication that it will continue? Wasn't planning a break, but with these temps [I] may break up the winter with a trip to the Keys." Meteorologists are blaming the cold spell on shifting patterns of atmospheric pressure to our east, called the North Atlantic Oscillation, which have brought cold and snowy weather from central North America to Northern Europe and northern China.

At the tail end of the wettest and snowiest December on record, and topping off one of the city's wettest years, it looks like the area is in for more rain and snow before ringing in the new year. The National Weather Service is forecasting a 60 percent chance for a "wintry mix" of precipitation on New Year's Eve, continuing through the night. The area might see sunshine today, but the bad weather is expected to start as snow after 1 a.m., changing to freezing rain and then rain by Thursday afternoon.

Joe McHugh was one of several readers who asked: The picture in The Baltimore Sun on Dec. 13 showed a huge 25-point, nontypical buck that was still in velvet. I had never seen a deer still in velvet this late in the season. Is this common? Is there any explanation? (Please don't say global warming and/or El Nino.) More information on this phenomenon would be truly appreciated. Outdoors Girl replies: My mantra is: "Everyone should have a personal biologist." I am lucky to have lots of them.

Joe McHugh was one of several readers who asked: The picture in The Baltimore Sun on Dec. 13 showed a huge 25-point, nontypical buck that was still in velvet. I had never seen a deer still in velvet this late in the season. Is this common? Is there any explanation? (Please don't say global warming and/or El Nino.) More information on this phenomenon would be truly appreciated. Outdoors Girl replies: My mantra is: "Everyone should have a personal biologist." I am lucky to have lots of them.