Economist

For a man-on-the-street reaction, IM-Fve slightly altered a remark by Dick, a butcher: M-tThe first thing we do, letM-Fs kill all the economists.M-v Dick, a character in ShakespeareM-Fs King Henry VI, actually said M-tlawyers.M-v But donM-Ft think the other idea didnM-Ft occur to people in the White House on Friday morning, after the latest disappointing jobs data blew away more optimistic forecasts by leading economists on whom the Bush administration relied. For the sixth time in the past seven months, the closely watched report on non-farm payroll growth was outside the range of economistsM-F estimates, according to economist David Resler at Nomura Securities International.

Taking a somewhat upbeat view of the downturn in the economy, an economist for T. Rowe Price Associates Inc. is predicting a mild to moderate recession, lasting six to nine months with the unemployment rate not going over 7 percent."

WE'VE ALL heard the old saw, "If you're so smart, why ain't you rich?" But the salient question is just the opposite - if we're such a rich society, why aren't we smarter about allocating our wealth? That's the premise of Cornell economist Robert Frank's Luxury Fever, a good book I almost didn't read -because I didn't need another screed about what hideous over-consumers we have become. For the record, Americans are 5 percent of Earth's population, consuming about 30 percent of the Earth's nonrenewable natural resources.

A top economist for the state said yesterday that Maryland likely emerged from recession late last year but that jobs probably won't start growing until the end of the year or into 2003. "Probably we are out of the recession," said Pradeep Ganguly, chief economist for Maryland's Department of Business and Economic Development. "Maryland is doing better than you think that it is doing." Ganguly, who spoke to reporters and economic development marketing officials, said he believes that Maryland has likely emerged from recession because of positive national trends.

The U.S. economy is very likely in a recession now, but a rebound that lasts up to eight years will start early next year, according to Tucker Anthony chief economist Kathleen M. Camilli. Camilli was in town visiting some of the area branches of Tucker Anthony, a Boston-based brokerage house. She was scheduled to give a talk on the U.S. economy at the Maryland Club last night. "An economist must always be forward-looking," Camilli said during an afternoon interview at Tucker Anthony's East Pratt Street branch, which overlooks the Inner Harbor.

The world's biggest oil companies are piling up cash faster than they can spend it, sparking a backlash amid sky-high gasoline and heating-fuel prices. Yesterday, Chevron Corp. became the last of the Big Five to join the industry's third-quarter earnings boom, reporting a profit of $3.6 billion. The Big Five's total take for the three-month period was $33 billion. The oil industry's profit gusher is angering motorists and homeowners who believe they're being gouged, prompting some critics in Congress to propose seizing the windfall altogether.

Maryland will add 40,000 jobs next year, accelerating slightly from its present crawl but still trailing the nation's economy and still subject to sabotage from the Federal Reserve, Towson State University economist Michael Conte said yesterday.The first three months of 1997 "will start out a little slow," Conte said at an economic conference in downtown Baltimore yesterday, "but going into the year we're going to have a significant pickup."A closely followed observer of Maryland commerce, Conte has furnished forecasts in recent years that have been consistently rosier than those of many of his colleagues, and yesterday's hewed to the rule.

What will 1998 bring for Maryland and the nation? Jay Hancock, The Sun's economics writer, interviewed three specialists. They are J. Patrick Bradley, senior vice president and director of economic and investment research, Mercantile-Safe Deposit & Trust Co.; Charles McMillion, chief economist of MBG Information Services, a Washington economics and forecasting consultancy; and Margaret M. Murphy, vice president and economist with the Baltimore branch of...

SAN FRANCISCO -- A combination of higher interest rates and years of rising prices could soon take some air out of the hot U.S. housing market. "The boom is showing some signs of tiring," said David Lereah, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors. "We are looking at about a 4 percent drop in home sales next year. We are projecting a significant drop in the price appreciation pace." But even though the velocity of the housing market will subside, "we are looking for a soft landing," he told the Realtors' national convention in San Francisco yesterday.

MOSCOW, Russia - President Vladimir V. Putin dismissed his chief representative to the leading group of industrialized nations yesterday, a week after the economist blasted the Kremlin's case against the oil giant Yukos as "the swindle of the year." Andrei Illarionov, who apparently retains his post as an economic adviser to Putin, is a government insider who has become critical of the Kremlin's increasing control of the economy, the news media and politics. His public split with Putin may signal a power struggle within the government.