Economic Slowdown

WHAT continues to be the hottest investment in the American economy? If you own a home, you've already got the answer. Defying the spreading signs of economic slowdown, housing values have risen by an astounding 8.8 percent nationwide in the past 12 months, according to the latest quarterly report by the federal agency that tracks home prices. That 8.8 percent jump represents the national average, and includes such local gains as the District of Columbia, 15.4 percent; California, 14.7 percent; Massachusetts, 13.2 percent; Colorado, 12.1 percent; and New York and Rhode Island, both 11.7 percent.

WASHINGTON - President Bush ventured into enemy territory yesterday, meeting with Senate Democrats to outline his hopes for his first year in office. Later in the day, in a speech to Republican members of Congress at a retreat in Williamsburg, Va., he vowed to make the case for deep tax cuts "over and over again" until Americans are convinced that his plan would help the middle class and act as a remedy for economic slowdown. Bush's spokesman said the Democrats, who met with Bush behind closed doors, listened politely but were "tentative and silent" during his 12-minute speech, which was followed by a brief question-and-answer period.

Despite the many signs of an economic slowdown - the bear market in stocks, the layoff announcements that come almost daily and the slide in consumer confidence - Bruce and Sheridan Herd right now see no reason to prune their spending. The couple was at Towson Town Center last week, where Sheridan Herd, 58, was getting several of her rings repaired while her husband, Bruce, 62, was picking up a few jazz CDs from the Sam Goody store. "The economy's slowing, but we're still going pretty strong," said Bruce Herd, a timekeeper for the International Longshoremen's Association in Baltimore.

QUESTION OF THE MONTH Many local schools have adopted stricter dress codes that bar short skirts and shorts, tank tops, crop tops and other revealing attire. Do you support such restrictions? Do you regard such fashions as a distraction from learning or valid self-expression? Do bare shoulders, thighs and navels in school make it hard to concentrate on studies? We are looking for 300 words or less; the deadline is Sept. 24. Letters become the property of The Sun, which reserves the right to edit them.

NEW YORK -- With six interest-rate increases in 1994 one might wonder: Is the Federal Reserve having any success in slowing the economy?By the usual measures of growth and unemployment, the economy doesn't seem to have gotten the message. It just keeps getting stronger, apparently ignoring the Fed boosts meant to stave off potential inflation.But, in fact, the seeds of slowdown "are" taking root, according to a study by the Securities Industry Association, the trade group for brokerages and investment banks.

WASHINGTON -- Presidents and their political advisers often complain about how they are compromised by issues that could not be anticipated and by problems that may be beyond their control.There are many examples. President Carter's re-election campaign in 1980 clearly was itself held hostage by the hostage crisis in Iran that began in November of 1979.Now President Clinton is facing two similarly threatening if less spectacular situations as he begins his campaign for a second term. The immediate problem is the war in Bosnia.

Recession is on the menu. Because of the housing slump, $3 gas, indebted consumers and higher interest rates, analysts increasingly suspect production and employment may shrink in coming months, possibly dealing the country its worst economic blow since 1990. "The U.S. economy is headed for a sharp recession by early 2007," Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics Monitor, says on his blog. "Intimations of recession" was the headline on economist Paul Krugman's column in The New York Times two weeks ago. "The economy is slowing, and I suspect that by the end of the year it could very well be in recession," investment strategist Gary Shilling told CRN magazine (formerly Computer Reseller News )

Ah, twice-a-week garbage collection. It was nice while it lasted - 55 years, apparently - but it's time to give up this municipal luxury. It's time to hold our noses and pry this one out of our cold, Hefty Cinch Sak'd fingers. As the city looks to slash spending - Mayor Sheila Dixon on Friday projected a $65 million gap in fiscal 2010 between what the city will take in and what it will spend to provide the current level of services - going from twice- to once-a-week garbage pickup is an idea whose time has come.

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks fell yesterday for the third time this week as concern grew that the economy's slowdown will crimp earnings growth later this year.An Atlanta Federal Reserve report showed cooler economic growth, driving investors from computer-related companies to companies whose profits are less dependent on the economy's health. The latest winter storm to hit the Northeast, home to about one-third of the nation's economy, compounded earnings concerns.The Dow Jones industrial average fell 3.98, to end the week at 5061.

Maryland colleges and universities are raising more money than ever despite a faltering economy, though some campuses are worried about declining alumni giving and say that the economic slump, if it persists, could hit the education sector in coming years. As of May 31, the 13-campus University System of Maryland had raised nearly $220 million in the fiscal year that ends this month, a 27 percent increase over last year's total during the same period. At the private Johns Hopkins University, donations are on track to hit $450 million this fiscal year, making it the strongest year ever for one of the nation's fundraising powerhouses.