Economic Indicators

WASHINGTON - The Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell in January for the first time in four months, which may suggest a slower pace of growth in coming months as the threat of war in Iraq intensifies. A 0.1 percent decline in the Conference Board's gauge of the performance of the economy over the next three to six months followed a 0.2 percent rise in December and a 0.5 percent gain in November. It was the first decline since a 0.5 percent drop in September. "The weakening trend in the LEI index points to weaker manufacturing activity in the months to come," said Kenneth Kim, an economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, N.J. Economists had projected no change in the leading indicators index.

Economic Forecast Breakfast is Dec. 6 The Howard County Chamber of Commerce will hold its first Economic Forecast Breakfast at 8 a.m. Dec. 6 at the Sheraton Columbia Hotel. A panel of experts will discuss economic indicators and forecasts for 2007. Representatives of the Economic Indicators Group, a joint project of the chamber and county government, will present a local perspective. Panelists are to include Lee Wilhide of Wilhide's Flowers, Chip Lunch of Williamsburg Group Builders, Suzi Padgett of Coldwell Banker Residential Realtors, and Jim Peacock of PCA Group.

Some economic indicators are better than others. Mitchell Held, Smith Barney's chief financial economist, has a strong opinion on the subject, so strong that he recently headlined a report, "Three Economic Indicators to Take With You Should You Be Stranded on a Desert Island."OK, so the economy and its chances for recovery may be the last thing on your mind if you're stranded on a desert island. But these indicators have worked well for Held, who says: "They'll pick up acceleration or deceleration in the economy two-thirds of the time, which is better than many economists can do."

THE ECONOMIC indicators that steer our market economy are relentlessly driving America's children into poverty. Yet there is no statistical gauge of our children's well-being -- no Dow Jones average -- that might guide economic decisions.To see how the current economic thinking, which prizes low inflation, has affected children, compare their fortunes with the stock market's. Between 1980 and 1992, the Dow Jones average soared to record highs (despite the 1987 crash) while the number of children below the poverty line grew by 26 percent.

WASHINGTON -- Sales of new homes unexpectedly soared in January to their highest level in a decade and the index of leading economic indicators rose, providing fresh evidence yesterday that U.S. growth might be accelerating.Underscoring that, a private report showed retail sales rose in February, a sign consumer spending remains strong.Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, meanwhile, said the good times could continue, forecasting "continued sustainable economic growth accompanied by low and stable inflation."

WASHINGTON -- The government's Index of Leading Economic Indicators soared 1.9 percent in December, its third straight advance and the brightest forecast for growth in nearly 10 years, the Commerce Department reported yesterday.At the same time, the department found that sales of new single-family homes climbed 6.3 percent for the month, a gain even bigger than it appeared because of a sharp upward revision for sales in November.Analysts said the figures represented further confirmation that the U.S. economy was expanding solidly, lacking only strong job gains to put an end to doubts about robust expansion for 1993.

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks were mixed yesterday as Sears, Roebuck & Co. and other retailers posted lackluster sales gains in May.Trading was slow as investors waited for today's report on May employment for a clearer picture on inflation in the economy.If employment grew more than predicted, the Federal Reserve will be more likely to raise interest rates for the fifth time this year to ward off inflation, traders said. As rates rise, stocks become less attractive relative to fixed-income securities.

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economic indicators -- a composite index intended to project growth over the next half-year -- rose in November, the fifth consecutive advance and a sign that 1998 will start on sound footing.The Conference Board reported yesterday that it's index climbed 0.1 percent in November after rising an unrevised 0.1 percent in October. Of the 10 previously released indicators, four made a positive contribution in November, with manufacturers' orders for capital goods accounting for the bulk of the gain.

NEW YORK -- A barometer measuring U.S. economic growth improved for the third straight month during March, paced by stock market gains.The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, designed to be a predictor of activity over the next half-year, rose 0.2 percent in March after climbing an unrevised 0.4 percent in February and 0.1 percent in January."

If banished to a desert island and allowed only one economic indicator to ply his trade, FinancialOxygen Inc. chief economist Steven A. Wood would use payroll employment figures to make his economic forecasts. If facing the same restrictions, Merrill Lynch & Co. senior economist Gerald D. Cohen would stick with the yield curve, which hints at the economy's future with the changing relationship between short- and long-term interest rates. Interestingly, neither would rely upon the index of leading economic indicators, which was released yesterday.