Economic Indicators

The federal government's main forecasting gauge for the economy posted its third monthly increase in a row in April, boosting hopes that an end of the recession could be near.Statistics released today by the Commerce Department showed an unusually broad-based improvement in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. The index of 11 key economic statistics rose by 0.6 percent after a revised rise of 0.7 percent in March and a 1.2 percent climb in February.Meanwhile, state officials report some early, if unsteady, signs of recovery in Maryland's economy.

From The Consuming Interests blog: All you big spenders out there are making retailers very happy this holiday season. So much so that the National Retail Federation is raising its sales outlook for the season. The trade group said that it is revising its forecast to 3.3 percent, up from 2.3 percent. Improvement in several economic indicators prompted NRF to issue the better forecast. Stock market gains, recent income growth and savings built up during the recession are all giving consumers better capacity to spend, the group said in a press release.

The release dates of several economic indicators were incorrectly reported in Monday's Business section. Figures for the Consumer Price Index will be released June 14; those for factory use, industrial production and business inventories, June 15; and those for housing starts, June 16.The Sun regrets the errors.

Eddie C. Brown's business is investing money, but he's also passionate about giving it. Brown founded Brown Capital Management in Baltimore, which manages $2.6 billion on behalf of clients, and he's an active local philanthropist. With wife Sylvia, he has given large donations to institutions ranging from the Enoch Pratt Free Library to the Maryland Institute College of Art. They've spent $6 million, and expect to donate more, to launch and support a middle-school achievement program based at The Crossroads School in Baltimore.

Economic indicators Monday: February construction spending Tuesday: February factory orders Thursday: Weekly jobless claims Friday: March unemployment Wednesday Executives Association of Baltimore luncheon meeting, noon, Cross Keys Inn, 5100 Falls Road, Roland Park. Nonmember cost is $20. For reservations, call Bob Hodges at 410-465-8029.

From The Consuming Interests blog: All you big spenders out there are making retailers very happy this holiday season. So much so that the National Retail Federation is raising its sales outlook for the season. The trade group said that it is revising its forecast to 3.3 percent, up from 2.3 percent. Improvement in several economic indicators prompted NRF to issue the better forecast. Stock market gains, recent income growth and savings built up during the recession are all giving consumers better capacity to spend, the group said in a press release.

A weekly briefing on the economic calendar: Tuesday Notable earnings reports: 3M, Bank One, Citigroup, General Motors, Washington Mutual. Wednesday The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announces housing starts and building permits for December. Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month, and permits represent the number of new excavations authorized. November housing starts showed an increase of 4.5 percent, and building permits decreased 5.4 percent.

Getting a bunch of economists to agree on anything is tough. Getting them to agree on which economic indicators are most important for investors is another matter entirely. Nonetheless, a group of the nation's top economic analysts offered their views to try to sort out which economic indicators are the most valuable for everyday investors to watch. And then they indicated which ones they found overrated, unhelpful or for some reason irrelevant in today's markets. As expected, it wasn't always pretty.

If members of Congress have any doubt about the need to quickly pass an economic stimulus package, here are some persuasive reasons: (diamond) Unemployment increased by 500,000 jobs in December, bringing total jobs lost to 2.6 million since 2007. That's the largest annual job loss since World War II, and the unemployment rate of 7.2 percent is the highest in 18 years. (diamond) Americans lost more than $8 trillion in the stock market and $6 trillion in housing wealth in 2008. Over the last year, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 34 percent of its value, and home sale prices declined nearly 20 percent through the third quarter, as measured by the S&P Case Shiller national home price index.

Economic Forecast Breakfast is Dec. 6 The Howard County Chamber of Commerce will hold its first Economic Forecast Breakfast at 8 a.m. Dec. 6 at the Sheraton Columbia Hotel. A panel of experts will discuss economic indicators and forecasts for 2007. Representatives of the Economic Indicators Group, a joint project of the chamber and county government, will present a local perspective. Panelists are to include Lee Wilhide of Wilhide's Flowers, Chip Lunch of Williamsburg Group Builders, Suzi Padgett of Coldwell Banker Residential Realtors, and Jim Peacock of PCA Group.

Getting a bunch of economists to agree on anything is tough. Getting them to agree on which economic indicators are most important for investors is another matter entirely. Nonetheless, a group of the nation's top economic analysts offered their views to try to sort out which economic indicators are the most valuable for everyday investors to watch. And then they indicated which ones they found overrated, unhelpful or for some reason irrelevant in today's markets. As expected, it wasn't always pretty.

Economic indicators Monday: August new-home sales Wednesday: Final second-quarter gross domestic product Thursday: August personal income and spending, weekly jobless claims Friday: August construction spending Looking ahead Oct. 5 Baltimore PC Users Group will meet at 6:30 p.m., Cockeysville Middle School, 10401 Greenside Drive. Call 410-667-1699.

A weekly briefing on the economic calendar Monday Earnings reports: 3M, Delta Air Lines, Legg Mason, Allstate, Kraft Foods Tuesday * Housing starts and building permits for June Earnings reports: Altria, Ameritrade, Boise Cascade, Ford Motor, Manpower, RadioShack, U.S. Bancorp, Wells Fargo, E*Trade, Motorola, Pixelworks, Sun Microsystems, Texas Instruments Wednesday Earnings reports: AT&T Wireless, Blockbuster, Eastman Kodak, Fannie Mae, General...

WASHINGTON - The Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell in January for the first time in four months, which may suggest a slower pace of growth in coming months as the threat of war in Iraq intensifies. A 0.1 percent decline in the Conference Board's gauge of the performance of the economy over the next three to six months followed a 0.2 percent rise in December and a 0.5 percent gain in November. It was the first decline since a 0.5 percent drop in September. "The weakening trend in the LEI index points to weaker manufacturing activity in the months to come," said Kenneth Kim, an economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, N.J. Economists had projected no change in the leading indicators index.