Economic Growth

WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy grew at a faster rate in the first quarter of this year than previously thought, the government reported yesterday, further muddying the question of whether or not the sluggish U.S. economy is in recession. Between January and March, the U.S. economy grew by 0.9 percent, not the 0.6 percent projected a month ago, the Commerce Department said. Normally, such a slight upward revision wouldn't merit much attention. But economists and policymakers are confounded by today's economy, which is being dragged down by a deep housing slump and soaring energy prices.

Democracy does not cultivate a taste for deferred gratification: Politicians eyeing the next election want to give people what they want sooner rather than later. And in a time of economic turmoil, the impulse to do something immediately is even stronger. But the haste is misplaced. In the current climate of panic, policymakers need to learn patience - and they need to learn it right now. A couple of alleged crises are getting all the attention at the moment. The first is the risk of a recession.

JAKARTA, Indonesia -- Former President Suharto, an army general who rose to power in Indonesia with the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of people and ruled for 32 years during an era of rapid economic growth and extraordinary graft, died yesterday in Indonesia. He was 86. Suharto's unyielding opposition to communism won him the backing of the United States during the height of the Cold War, although he was one of the most brutal and corrupt rulers of that era. He governed the world's fourth-most-populous nation with a combination of paternalism and ruthlessness from 1965 until he was ousted in spring 1998.

FAIRFAX, Va. -- A consensus is building that America's economy is sliding - perhaps plummeting - into recession. In December, the unemployment rate jumped to 5 percent, up three-tenths of 1 percent from November. And, of course, investors are now growlingly bearish. To no one's surprise, politicians are rushing in with plans for helping the economy. Democrats and Republicans in Congress last week reached a tentative agreement to put more money into the hands of ordinary Americans in hopes that they will spend - not save - it, thereby boosting the overall economy.

WASHINGTON -- As President Bush and Congress weigh the need for a stimulus package to ensure that the slowing economy keeps growing, experts warn that there's insufficient evidence the effort is needed and that it could do more harm than good. No one can yet say with certainty that the U.S. economy is about to enter a recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. And by the time that becomes clear, a stimulus plan could be too late to do much immediate good.

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy edged a step closer to recession in December by producing only 18,000 new jobs, its worst performance in four years, and sending the unemployment rate to a two-year high of 5 per- cent. The meager job gains, reported yesterday by the Labor Department, were much weaker than expected and showed the toll that tightening credit, a slumping housing market and a staggering stock market are taking on the nation. The worst of the job-market trouble was concentrated in construction, which shed 49,000 jobs, and manufacturing, which lost 31,000.

Afraid that the state could be headed for a recession, a committee of General Assembly leaders recommended last night cutting state spending increases by almost half. If Gov. Martin O'Malley follows the benchmark set by the Spending Affordability Committee - a bipartisan group of lawmakers assigned to keep state spending from exceeding economic growth - Maryland would spend 4.27 percent more on public services than it did last year, a smaller increase than in all but five of the past 25 years.

WASHINGTON -- The financial turmoil that began with the seemingly narrow meltdown in subprime mortgages is now forcing both policymakers and Wall Street analysts to scale back their expectations for growth in the overall economy. Most economists still predict continued economic growth for the rest of the year and into 2008, but many are trimming their forecasts and warning that even their somewhat darker views could be too rosy. Global Insight Inc., a forecasting firm in Lexington, Mass.

What if, during William Howard Taft's presidency, Congress had enacted laws that would predetermine all spending well into the 21st century? As economic growth swelled government revenues, legislators would continue to prescribe - from six feet under - how to divvy the spoils. Their well-worn policy wheels would run over future elected officials and voters, preventing them from embracing new priorities unless they simultaneously rescinded past promises written into the law. Unable to see their way out of this logjam, the next generation of Republicans and Democrats would only make it worse - waddling back and forth between promising even more benefits relative to what could be delivered and enacting low-cost but ineffectual policies to achieve symbolic results.

WASHINGTON -- Government statistics released yesterday indicate that U.S. economic growth ground nearly to a stop in the first quarter, a sign that's often interpreted to mean recession is lurking. Most economists don't think the sky is falling, however, and believe a strong rebound is already under way. The Commerce Department revised downward its earlier gross domestic product data, which had suggested that the U.S. economy grew by 1.3 percent during January, February and March. The revised data put the growth rate at a dismal 0.6 percent, the slowest since late 2002, when the U.S. economy was recovering from a recession.