Economic Growth

Baltimore County will continue to see slow economic growth in 2012, an economist told the county's Spending Affordability Committee on Wednesday at its first meeting of the year. "We know that the economic recovery continues to be quite fragile," Anirban Basu of Sage Policy Group told the committee. He predicted personal income would grow between 4 percent and 4.5 percent in fiscal year 2012, which ends June 30. That's compared to about 4.6 percent in the previous fiscal year.

Just when Washington looked like it was completely preoccupied with the scandals, real and imaginary, swirling around the White House, a group of Democrats and Republicans in the Senate managed the unexpected (and, these days, extraordinary): They agreed on something. The vote Tuesday night in the Senate Judiciary Committee to forward to the floor a massive overhaul of the nation's immigration system was, to be sure, a small step and doesn't guarantee success in the full Senate, much less the House of Representatives.

Today marks the second anniversary of President Barack Obama's National Export Initiative (NEI), an ambitious effort to double U.S. exports by the end of 2014 and support millions of American jobs. In 2011, U.S. goods and services exports reached a record $2.1 trillion and supported the growth of American businesses across the country. Moreover, our economy has added private sector jobs for 24 straight months. Cities like Baltimore are fueling America's exporting growth. According to new data from the Department of Commerce's International Trade Administration (ITA)

"Our biggest problems over the next 10 years are not deficits," President Barack Obama told House Republicans last week, according to those who attended the meeting. The president needs to deliver the same message to the public, loudly and clearly. The biggest problems we face are unemployment, stagnant wages, slow growth and widening inequality -- not deficits. The major goal must be to get jobs and wages back, not balance the budget. Rep. Paul Ryan's budget plan is designed to lure the White House and Democrats, and the American public, into a debate over how to balance the federal budget in 10 years, not over whether it's worth doing.

WASHINGTON -- Signs that the pace of economic growth may slow in the months ahead spread yesterday when the government said its main forecasting index was unchanged in April.The reading followed a March gain as large as any since Bill Clinton's inauguration as president.A separate Commerce Department report showed the nation's factories obtaining slightly fewer orders in April, an indication of diminished prospects for what has been a vigorous industrial sector.Still other official figures found first-time claims for unemployment benefits rising on a four-week average to the highest levels in over a year, when weather-induced layoffs in February are disregarded.

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks rose yesterday as expectations for an economic resurgence later this year helped technology issues and hurt stocks that do best in a slowdown.Optimism that economic growth will pick up speed in the second half of 1995 boosted stocks of companies such as United Technologies Corp. whose profits move up and down along with the economy.That same outlook lessened the appeal of Coca-Cola Co. and Procter & Gamble Co."The economy is not going into a hole," said Graham Tanaka, president of Tanaka Capital Management, which manages about million in assets.

TOKYO -- The twin economic locomotives of personal consumption and capital investment that have led Japan's economic growth for four years seem to be losing steam, according to the results of economic surveys released Monday."

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks eked out gains for a second day yesterday as expectations of an economic slowdown tempered optimism about earnings at Apple Computer Inc. and Microsoft Corp.As long as concern persists that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and curtail economic growth, even robust earnings at technology bellwethers aren't enough to rally an industry group, let alone the entire market, said Philip Tasho, portfolio manager at Shawmut Investment Advisers, which manages about $14 billion.

This is how brokerage firms and economists look at 1992:*Kidder, Peabody & Co. Inc.December 1991As we enter 1992, the recovery appears extremely vulnerable. It will be sustained, however, by the lowest short-term interest rates in the past two decades, an accommodative Federal Reserve, and a government commitment to put the economy back on track.Contrary to the dismal forecasts from the doomsayers, the economy will emerge from recession. The apparent sudden sinking of the economy in the fourth quarter of 1991 has blinded many to the favorable factors supporting an economic recovery.

The mid-Atlantic economy is among the slowest in the nation, as manufacturing companies continue to move out in search of cheaper labor, land and taxes. And with a Republican Congress drafting budget cuts aimed at wiping out the federal deficit, the WEFA Group, a Philadelphia-based consultancy, has forecast that reduced U.S. government spending could cost Maryland 100,000 jobs over the next decade.That scenario comes at a time that a slowing national economy prompted the Federal Reserve last week to trim interest rates a quarter point in the hope of preserving its "soft landing" strategy -- heading off inflation without precipitating a recession.

President Barack Obama used the first State of the Union address of his second term to try to breathe new life into his economic agenda, reviving modest measures to spur growth and trying to create fresh momentum in the all-but-stagnant talks over deficit reduction. Entering his fifth year presiding over a flagging economy, the president on Tuesday declared the restoration of a strong middle class "our unfinished task" and called on a deeply divided Congress to find "reasonable compromise" to solve the nation's lingering fiscal ills.

The latest report from the nonpartisan Economic Policy Institute makes a compelling case for raising the minimum wage, nationally and in Maryland. Legislation introduced last week in Annapolis would raise the minimum from $7.25 an hour to $10 in two years and keep it indexed to inflation - a move that EPI says will not only put $778 million more in the pockets of Maryland workers but create 4,280 new jobs from increased economic activity generated by the higher pay. We know that the reaction to many in the business community will be, as it has always been, unyielding opposition.

There is an old but rejuvenated movement in the country these days. It's a far-left take on Keynesian economics: a school of thought intent on raising taxes and expanding the public sector - as a way to jump-start the economy. Yes, you read that correctly. The progressive intelligentsia (with a recent assist by the Congressional Research Service) are all hot and excited by the prospect of higher taxes on upper-income taxpayers, the better to spur economic growth. The model is supposed to be the Clinton era, wherein income tax hikes coincided with strong economic growth, a surging stock market, and three consecutive years of a federal balanced budget.

Four years ago, Osama bin Laden was at large, the U.S. and world economies were in free-fall, America was bogged down in two wars, and the Bush Administration had lost friends - governments as well as ordinary people - for America around the world. Under President Barack Obama's and Vice President Joe Biden's leadership, all these dangers have been eliminated or reduced. We still have more than enough foreign policy challenges, but in terms of our country's security and economic prospects, we are much better off than we were four years ago. First, with hard power, President Obama has taken out bin Laden and other terrorist enemies of America.

In recent days there has been much talk of the presidential debates. We are preoccupied with relatively trivial perceptions of who "won" or "lost. " There has also been endless discussion of whose policy proposals are better. Rather than entertain these meaningless debates, however, we would do better to look at our track record as a nation in comparison to other nations. I bring this up because in 2008 too many of us were blinded by "American exceptionalism" to realize that the recession that we suffered was global in its reach and not isolated to the U.S. All of the research has already been done for us, via the CIA World Fact Book.

At last, I can say I finally enjoyed reading one of former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.'s columns. He demonstrated that he learned something (between football practices) about economics and sociology at the prestigious Ivy League university he attended ("The fight to win over the middle class," Sept 16). Rather than regurgitating the week's Republican drivel, he seems to actually be able to provide some original analysis by defining the characteristics of the middle class of the past and today.

CRAWFORD, Texas - President Bush expressed new confidence in the economy yesterday, declaring that his policies have laid "the foundation for sustained growth." But he said he was concerned that growth could be slowed by the rising costs of energy and health care. "In terms of ... the effect interest rates will have on our economy, I think we're more concerned about energy prices and health care prices," Bush said. "Those are the two areas that we see as having a greater effect on ... the future of economic growth."

Orders for American-made machine tools rose 6.4 percent last month from January's level, in another sign of renewed economic growth, according to a report to be released today by an industry trade group.The Association for Manufacturing Technology, calculated February's orders at $231.4 million, up from $217.4 million in January. The amount of February orders was down 5.6 percent, however, from the $245.2 million of February 1991.Together with January's figures, year-to-date orders for machine tools totaled $448.

Get ready for the tax wars. President Barack Obama wants to raise taxes on the rich, setting a minimum tax rate of 30 percent on millionaires (the so-called "Buffett Rule," named after billionaire investor Warren Buffett, who says it's unfair that he pays a lower tax rate than his secretary). Mitt Romney, the presumed Republican presidential candidate, wants to lower taxes on the rich. He supports the House Republicans' plan to cut the highest tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent, thereby reducing the taxes of millionaires by an average of at least $150,000 a year.

Luxury retailers are smiling. So are the owners of high-end restaurants, sellers of upscale cars, vacation planners, financial advisers, and personal coaches. For them and their customers and clients, the recession is over. The recovery is now full speed. But the rest of America isn't enjoying an economic recovery. It's still sick. Many Americans remain in critical condition. The Commerce Department reported last Thursday that the economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2011 (far better than the measly 1.8 percent third-quarter growth)