Economic Collapse

Chicago -- No ONE who reads the papers needs to be reminded that we face a future of ethnic and tribal wars and the disintegration of one stable nation-state after another. No one has to be reminded that those fearsome wraiths followed immediately upon the collapse of communism.But I have done on-the-spot coverage of most of these new "little wars" -- from Lebanon to Yugoslavia to Azerbaijan -- and what troubles me deeply is that the predominant analyses of their causes are so flawed that our responses to them so far also have been fatally flawed.

THE REMARKABLE aspect of Argentina's crisis is that it has not spread and has not panicked markets elsewhere. This reduces the likelihood of outside rescue by the United States and International Monetary Fund. Argentina is on its own. It is a social crisis that came when the middle classes, being wiped out, took to the streets with the poor. It is an economic crisis in that endemic deficits swamped all possibility of debt repayment. But it was politically triggered. The Justicialist Party, as the Peronists are called, came to congressional power in October and refused to cooperate with President Fernando de la Rua. Now the Peronist senate leader, Ramon Puerta, is caretaker president, and the congress must decide, possibly today, whether to hold a presidential election or let him serve out two years.

WASHINGTON -- North Korea's announcement yesterday that it had detonated a nuclear device in an underground test raised anew the prospect of a military clash on the Korean peninsula. But unlike past crises, U.S. officials now say that North Korea's military has deteriorated significantly as the isolated communist regime struggles with an economy in collapse and agricultural mismanagement that is slowly starving its people. Still, North Korea retains enough military capacity to be a tough target for any would-be invader, and its steep mountains and deep ravines have helped thwart previous incursions.

MOSCOW -- It's a perfect March day -- for walruses, anyway. The temperature is 25 degrees Fahrenheit, a brisk wind is blowing the falling snow, and the Moscow zoo's walruses are bellowing happily, frolicking in their outdoor tank like 300-pound puppies. Inside the new waterfowl pavilion, life is not so good. The elegant ibis, regal swans and Mandarin ducks sit quietly, watching as a rat gobbles up the feed in their trough. The rat is very fat. Another rat, also well-fed, scurries along a tree branch.

Baltimore County's list of requests for this year's General Assembly is focused on education and public safety, County Executive James T. Smith Jr. told state legislators at a meeting yesterday in Towson. Despite reduced state revenue projections and the impact of the national economic collapse, he urged lawmakers to continue to support the legislature's $325 million commitment to a statewide public-school construction program for fiscal year 2010. County public schools have requested $84.5 million in state funds for construction and renovations, he said, including projects at Parkville High School, Catonsville High and Milford Mill Academy that would account for $20.4 million.

BEIJING -- A North Korean diplomat used a rare news conference here yesterday to rail against a nonexistent 150-mile-long concrete "wall of division" that the South Koreans supposedly erected 20 years ago along the buffer zone between North and South.Chu Chang Jun, North Korea's longtime ambassador to China, demanded the "immediate dismantling of the cursed reinforced concrete wall that artificially bisects the nation that had lived in harmony generation after generation."In a "never to be pardoned criminal act," the wall was erected across the peninsula 20 years ago Dec. 29, he said.

I am a proud Democrat and have been for my entire adult life. So when the Supreme Court ruled that George W. Bush was the winner of the 2000 presidential election, I was deeply disappointed but consoled myself by thinking, "how much harm could one president do?" Well, I found out. In the eight disastrous years of the Bush presidency, our country went from prosperity - the budget surplus was a huge campaign issue! - to nearly complete economic collapse, and from a nation whose president helped to end long-standing international conflicts (remember President Clinton's actions in Bosnia and Ireland?

John Fritze and Jill Rosen are to be commended for their depiction of Baltimore before, during and after the Schaefer era ("the city Schaefer leaves behind," April 24). Their description of "White flight, black flight" is 100 percent accurate on the facts. Omitted, however, is the cause and effect. The first blacks to move into white areas were the equivalent of the first whites to leave — top notch citizens one could be proud to have as neighbors. Then came the demolition of 99 percent of the black neighborhoods around Johns Hopkins to make way for redevelopment, and a second wave of migrants who, thanks to greedy banks and the federal government's policy of granting mortgages regardless of people's ability to repay.

WHETHER Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe will honor his commitment to undo violent seizures of white-owned farms, and substitute an orderly compensated redistribution, remains to be seen. His temptation to foment unrest to help him win re-election next April to another six-year term as president will be great. Despite, or because of, his 20 years in power, few believe he could stave off opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai's challenge in a fair and peaceful vote. But Zimbabwe agreed to the deal under pressure of other African members of the Commonwealth, the former British empire, who convened at Abuja, Nigeria's capital.

MOSCOW -- Alarmed by the nation's deepening economic crisis, the Soviet Parliament is demanding an emergency address on the state of the union from President Mikhail Gorbachev.Yesterday's surprising revolt by the normally passive lawmakers, who described the fears of economic collapse and famine they hear from their constituents, succeeded in forcing Gorbachev to agree to address them tomorrow on both the economy and the uncertain shift of government authority across the nation."If we do not do something about the situation now, people will take up arms and pour into the streets, and this will not be a military coup but a popular coup," declared one member of Parliament, Lt. Col. Viktor Alksnis.