Earnings Growth

I am a shareholder in BP PLC who is concerned about the company's prospects, especially with its leadership issues. - K.L., via the Internet The giant oil company, formed by the merger of British Petroleum Co. and Amoco Corp. in 1998, has set the bar high with production growth targets that exceed those of its competitors. It has an impressive portfolio of deep-water oil and gas projects and in liquefied natural gas, while its chemical operations are especially strong in Asia. A consistent performer, it hasn't had an unprofitable year in the past decade, and its disclosure of financial information has been admirable.

Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot has publicly expressed concern over recent Bureau of Labor Statistics figures indicating that Maryland lost 11,000 jobs in June. While we share his concern, there's a good chance that these preliminary figures will be adjusted for June as they were in May. The raw numbers indicate that Maryland added 2,100 jobs. Warm winter weather may have affected seasonal calculations, especially in northern states, but it's unlikely that we lost jobs. Mr. Franchot is also distressed by Maryland's ranking 48th in the recently-concluded fiscal year for private earnings growth.

Corporate America is poised to report its seventh consecutive quarter of profit growth, and perhaps the biggest year-over-year gain in earnings in nearly four years. But Wall Street's glee about fourth-quarter results is tempered somewhat by fears that earnings growth is peaking. Although it wasn't obvious then, the beginning of the 2000-2002 bear market coincided with the zenith of profit growth in the first quarter of 2000. This time around, many market professionals don't believe share prices are about to hit a wall.

I am a shareholder in BP PLC who is concerned about the company's prospects, especially with its leadership issues. - K.L., via the Internet The giant oil company, formed by the merger of British Petroleum Co. and Amoco Corp. in 1998, has set the bar high with production growth targets that exceed those of its competitors. It has an impressive portfolio of deep-water oil and gas projects and in liquefied natural gas, while its chemical operations are especially strong in Asia. A consistent performer, it hasn't had an unprofitable year in the past decade, and its disclosure of financial information has been admirable.

McCormick & Co. Inc. said yesterday that fourth-quarter net income rose 5.1 percent, marking the spice giant's fifth straight quarter of earnings growth.For the three months ended Nov. 30, Sparks-based McCormick reported net income of $48.2 million, up from $45.8 million in the year-ago quarter. On a per-share basis, McCormick reported earnings of 65 cents -- up 12 percent from 58 cents. Sales for the quarter were about $557 million, up 3.6 percent from $537 million.Robert J. Lawless, president and chief executive, said most of the company's business units posted quarterly gains.

McCormick & Co. Inc. reported lower-than-expected earnings yesterday for its fourth quarter that ended Nov. 30, though President and Chief Executive Officer Robert J. Lawless vowed that the Sparks-based spice-and-seasonings company would notch earnings growth in the low double digits in 1999.McCormick shares closed yesterday at $30.6875, down $1.5625, after the company said it earned 68 cents per share in the quarter. That was a slight improvement over the 65 cents the firm reported for the corresponding period the year before, but fell short of Wall Street's consensus estimate of 73 cents, according to Zacks Investment Research.

W. R. Grace & Co. issued its second earnings warning in as many months yesterday, saying a weak euro and rising prices for natural gas and raw materials will hurt profits more than was previously thought. The Columbia chemical maker also said that asbestos-related litigation could prompt it to take a charge in the fourth quarter. Last month, Grace officials warned that its target of 12 percent to 15 percent earnings growth last year wasn't likely to be reached. Instead, it said, it expected earnings growth of 10 percent to 12 percent.

ABBOTT LABORATORIES (ABT, NYSE, around $52): "The firm's long-range prospects are enhanced by a worldwide leadership position in in-vitro diagnostics, revitalized pharmaceutical operations, and a continual emphasis on fast-growing medical products. The company sports a 5-year growth rate of 15 percent. The issue yields 1.9 percent and has a quality ranking of A+."H&R BLOCK (HRB, NYSE, around $60): "H&R Block is the largest federal income tax preparer in the United States and Canada. The company has recorded a steady rise in earnings for nearly two decades.

W. R. Grace & Co.'s chief executive said yesterday that, thanks to high oil and natural gas prices and a strong dollar, earnings growth at the Columbia chemical maker this year and next will likely be less than it had expected. That news, coupled with Standard and Poor's announcement Monday evening that the company would be removed from the S&P 500 as of Friday, drove shares down 63 cents, or 28 percent, to $1.63, a 52-week low and their first close under $2. Bethlehem Steel Corp. will also be removed from the index.

Blockbuster"Despite the upcoming competition from pay-per-view channels on cable television, we believe Blockbuster Entertainment (NYSE, BV, $13.125) will be able to continue demonstrating strong earnings growth," says Keith Benjamin, Ladenburg, Thalmann & Co.Earnings of 17 cents per share for the fourth quarter were in line with our forecast. The same-store revenue increase of 16.3 percent was better than expected. While rental revenues rose 7.2 percent on a same-store basis, most of the strength was from the actual sale of video cassettes.

What's your opinion of my shares of Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc.? The company seems to be doing really well. - K.T., via the Internet To quote a market adage: Trees don't grow to the sky. Despite recent success, it seems inevitable that the largest U.S. brokerage, with offices in 36 countries, will encounter some fits and starts because that's simply the way that the financial markets operate. Shares of Merrill Lynch (MER) are up 10 percent this year after last year's 13 percent gain, a 2 percent gain in 2004 and a 54 percent rise in 2003.

Do this year's gains in stocks mean an "all-clear" sign for investors, a signal that the 20 percent market returns of the 1990s are back again, ready to fix beleaguered 401(k) accounts and pension funds alike? Professionals think not. And that's not simply because of immediate threats such as oil prices. Since the Dow Jones industrial average peaked at 11,722 in January 2000, market analysts have become a more sober crew. Analysts have gone back to calculating returns based on old principles of investing, instead of the creative accounting and the dreamy thinking that supercharged the market and gave investors annual returns of more than 20 percent for five consecutive years at the end of the '90s.

Listen to a stockbroker or financial planner hawk his services and you will almost certainly hear words to this effect: You can expect the stock market to return an average of 10 percent a year over the long term. That statistic is trotted out with such certitude that most investors accept it as financial gospel. But can investors who start buying stocks today expect that kind of return over the next 10, 20 and 30 years? "From 2005, guess the length of time that is needed to assure the long-term average," said Ed Easterling, president of Crestmont Research, a Dallas investment research firm.

Black & Decker Corp.'s cost-cutting prowess, combined with a construction boom that has fueled demand for power tools, contributed to a 27 percent increase in second-quarter profit for the nation's biggest tool- maker, the Towson-based company reported yesterday. The results beat analysts' expectations and prompted the company to increase its earnings forecast for the year. Net income for the second quarter was $154 million, or $1.88 a share, compared with $121.8 million, or $1.50 a share, for the year-earlier period.

Stocks plunged yesterday to their lowest levels this year as more investors rushed to join a worldwide selling spree, sending the Dow Jones industrial average below the psychologically important 10,000 mark for the first time in five months. Some analysts said the drop was fueled by fear that strong job growth reported Friday will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon. Others said investors are being scared off by increasingly bad news about the U.S. involvement in Iraq.

In a year when some annual meetings have turned into angry showdowns between shareholders and corporate leaders, yesterday's gathering of McCormick & Co. Inc. stockholders was a remarkable love feast. A day after the Sparks-based spice and flavorings manufacturer announced record first-quarter earnings, executives were savoring the sweet taste of success. "Our financial performance has been one of the best in the food industry," said Robert J. Lawless, McCormick's chairman, president and chief executive, noting that McCormick topped all Standard & Poor's 500 food companies with a 14.5 percent average five-year return.

Nutmeg Industries"Nutmeg (NYSE, NTM, $21) is the leading maker of team-sponsored sports apparel," notes Louis Navellier, MPT Review, Incline Village, Nev."The company produces apparel with team names and logos under licenses from Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, the National Football League and the National Hockey League. Nutmeg also has licenses with most major colleges and universities."Its "profit margins increased dramatically to 6.4 percent in its most recent quarter.

Cosmetic & Fragrance Concepts Inc.Chairman Louis R. Weinstein announced dramatically increased net earnings -- up 86 percent -- for the fiscal year. Mr. Weinstein attributed the earnings growth of the Savage-based cosmetics and beauty-aids retailer to its more aggressive sales plans, improved gross margins and cost-control measures. Consolidated revenues climbed 17 percent for the period, while same-store sales rose 13 percent.During the fourth quarter, the company moved to larger warehouse and office space in Savage.

Corporate America is poised to report its seventh consecutive quarter of profit growth, and perhaps the biggest year-over-year gain in earnings in nearly four years. But Wall Street's glee about fourth-quarter results is tempered somewhat by fears that earnings growth is peaking. Although it wasn't obvious then, the beginning of the 2000-2002 bear market coincided with the zenith of profit growth in the first quarter of 2000. This time around, many market professionals don't believe share prices are about to hit a wall.

As corporate America begins reporting third-quarter earnings in volume this week, hopes on Wall Street are high. And that may pose a challenge: To keep the stock market rallying, companies may have to not only beat profit growth estimates, but also offer reason to believe that 2004 results will be robust as well. Brokerage analysts expect companies in the blue-chip Standard & Poor's 500 index to post average earnings growth of 16.2 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to data tracker Thomson First Call in Boston.