Baseball Prospectus

The folks over at Baseball Prospectus might not be big fans of Orioles catcher Matt Wieters -- or "Murder Mittens" as I will now call him after plugging his name into this 19th-century Baltimore Orioles nickname generator -- but they are quite fond of Orioles lefty pitching prospect Zach Britton. Britton was sent down to Triple-A Norfolk yesterday after allowing just three runs in 20 innings this spring, which gave him a 1.35 ERA in Grapefruit League play. He is expected to arrive in the major leagues sometime this season.

The Orioles made their triumphant return to the postseason in 2012. The odds of them getting back there in 2013, if you trust Baseball Prospectus' projection, are less than 5 percent . It's one of those preseason predictions that had Adam Jones saying last month that “Sometimes I wish the media would just shut the hell up. " It's not that the numbers crunchers at Baseball Prospectus hate the Orioles. It's just that much of what the O's did last year either isn't quantifiable (like deftly shuttling players up and down from the minors)

Baseball Prospectus gave us an early look at their predictions for the 2011 season, and there was a lot to like about what they had to say unless your name is Matt Wieters. The highly-regarded statheads say the Orioles will finish 82-80 , giving Baltimore its first summer of winning baseball since the days when Hanson was considered to be good music. But based on PECOTA -- which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm -- Baseball Prospectus believes that catcher Matt Wieters is poised to be the Orioles' biggest disappointment in 2011.

When sifting through the national media's coverage of the Orioles this offseason, it isn't tough to notice a trend. The pundits love Dylan Bundy, they really like Buck Showalter - but ultimately they're pretty sold that the Orioles are going to have a tough time repeating their success from 2012. Here's a sample of what some of those national outlets have been writing about the O's in the past week. --- Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci writes that history isn't on the Orioles' side when it comes to winning like they did last year, and he has the numbers to back it up: Teams that make huge jumps in win totals almost always backslide.

The Orioles made their triumphant return to the postseason in 2012. The odds of them getting back there in 2013, if you trust Baseball Prospectus' projection, are less than 5 percent . It's one of those preseason predictions that had Adam Jones saying last month that “Sometimes I wish the media would just shut the hell up. " It's not that the numbers crunchers at Baseball Prospectus hate the Orioles. It's just that much of what the O's did last year either isn't quantifiable (like deftly shuttling players up and down from the minors)

Bill Pecota bounced around to three teams and just about every position on a baseball diamond. He retired after nine major league seasons with a .249 average and a whopping 22 home runs. His is not a name you would seize on when peering into the future for strains of baseball greatness. Or so I thought. You see, Pecota's name lives on as the acronym for a 3-year-old projection system used by the folks at Baseball Prospectus. The Prospectus is a sort of baseball think tank that cranks out books previewing each season and serves as an Internet clearing house for cutting-edge thinking about statistics, team management and such.

A couple of weeks ago, the folks over at Baseball Prospectus said that Orioles catcher Matt Wieters would be the team's biggest disappointment in 2011 . Now they have labeled the 24-year-old former first-round pick as one of the " most disappointing prospects of all time . " Really. "As we were among the first to hop on the Wieters bandwagon, let us be among the first off of it," wrote Steven Goldman. "The backstop is heading into his age-25 season. Whatever his .343/.

Matt Wieters' selection to next week’s All-Star Game was sweet, sweet redemption for the young catcher, who was labeled as one of the biggest busts in baseball history by Baseball Prospectus before the start of the season -- just his third in the major leagues. That claim was met with criticism in Birdland and beyond, and the Orioles backstop has proved that the rumors of his looming mediocrity were greatly exaggerated. Baseball Prospectus’ belief at the time -- the writer’s name was Steven Goldman -- was that Wieters was never going to be a good enough hitter to live up to the hype that met him when he arrived in the major leagues.

My post on Baseball Prospectus labeling Orioles catcher Matt Wieters as one of the " most disappointing prospects of all time " was on fire yesterday and continued to simmer today. Most of you vehemently disagreed with those highly-regarded statheads making that assessment before Wieters' 25th birthday , though a few folks didn't think it was too premature. I haven't once thought about giving up on Wieters. Of course, he needs some work at the plate; He's 24 and hasn't even played two full major-league seasons.

Andy MacPhail, Orioles president of baseball operations: "You have a switch hitter who can play defense at a position where defense is valued, who has demonstrated early on an acumen for handling the game behind the plate, and who has a chance to hit in the middle of your lineup as a switch hitter. Those things all together are a very rare thing, and that's why he's drawn the attention that he has." Chris Tillman, Orioles' top pitching prospect and a teammate of Wieters' the past two seasons: "I love throwing to him. He's such a big guy, but at the same time, he's always so low to the ground and gives you a great target.

Matt Wieters' selection to next week’s All-Star Game was sweet, sweet redemption for the young catcher, who was labeled as one of the biggest busts in baseball history by Baseball Prospectus before the start of the season -- just his third in the major leagues. That claim was met with criticism in Birdland and beyond, and the Orioles backstop has proved that the rumors of his looming mediocrity were greatly exaggerated. Baseball Prospectus’ belief at the time -- the writer’s name was Steven Goldman -- was that Wieters was never going to be a good enough hitter to live up to the hype that met him when he arrived in the major leagues.

Matt Wieters, the man Baseball Prospectus dubbed one of the "most disappointing prospects of all time," leaned against his locker recently and chuckled as he listened to the question. Is it possible, the Orioles catcher was asked, that you've been called overrated and over-hyped so frequently in your brief career that the pendulum has swung back and you can now be considered underrated? "I don't know," Wieters said, breaking into a thin smile. "I don't think you can really worry about it, because once that first pitch is thrown, all those ratings don't really mean much.

The folks over at Baseball Prospectus might not be big fans of Orioles catcher Matt Wieters -- or "Murder Mittens" as I will now call him after plugging his name into this 19th-century Baltimore Orioles nickname generator -- but they are quite fond of Orioles lefty pitching prospect Zach Britton. Britton was sent down to Triple-A Norfolk yesterday after allowing just three runs in 20 innings this spring, which gave him a 1.35 ERA in Grapefruit League play. He is expected to arrive in the major leagues sometime this season.

Ken Rosenthal, the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com, is one of the most respected media insiders in Major League Baseball. He's so plugged-in, most reporters dream they could one day report the breaking news nuggets he Tweets out when he actually goes to sleep (OK, maybe it's just me). Rosenthal is still very familiar with the Orioles organization from his days reporting and writing columns for  The Baltimore Sun back in the 1990s. Last week on FOXSports.com, he wrote a column that was critical of the Orioles' farm system , which he said puts them "at a severe disadvantage as they try to compete in the game’s toughest division, the AL East.

My post on Baseball Prospectus labeling Orioles catcher Matt Wieters as one of the " most disappointing prospects of all time " was on fire yesterday and continued to simmer today. Most of you vehemently disagreed with those highly-regarded statheads making that assessment before Wieters' 25th birthday , though a few folks didn't think it was too premature. I haven't once thought about giving up on Wieters. Of course, he needs some work at the plate; He's 24 and hasn't even played two full major-league seasons.

A couple of weeks ago, the folks over at Baseball Prospectus said that Orioles catcher Matt Wieters would be the team's biggest disappointment in 2011 . Now they have labeled the 24-year-old former first-round pick as one of the " most disappointing prospects of all time . " Really. "As we were among the first to hop on the Wieters bandwagon, let us be among the first off of it," wrote Steven Goldman. "The backstop is heading into his age-25 season. Whatever his .343/.

Matt Wieters, the man Baseball Prospectus dubbed one of the "most disappointing prospects of all time," leaned against his locker recently and chuckled as he listened to the question. Is it possible, the Orioles catcher was asked, that you've been called overrated and over-hyped so frequently in your brief career that the pendulum has swung back and you can now be considered underrated? "I don't know," Wieters said, breaking into a thin smile. "I don't think you can really worry about it, because once that first pitch is thrown, all those ratings don't really mean much.

Ken Rosenthal, the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com, is one of the most respected media insiders in Major League Baseball. He's so plugged-in, most reporters dream they could one day report the breaking news nuggets he Tweets out when he actually goes to sleep (OK, maybe it's just me). Rosenthal is still very familiar with the Orioles organization from his days reporting and writing columns for  The Baltimore Sun back in the 1990s. Last week on FOXSports.com, he wrote a column that was critical of the Orioles' farm system , which he said puts them "at a severe disadvantage as they try to compete in the game’s toughest division, the AL East.

Baseball Prospectus gave us an early look at their predictions for the 2011 season, and there was a lot to like about what they had to say unless your name is Matt Wieters. The highly-regarded statheads say the Orioles will finish 82-80 , giving Baltimore its first summer of winning baseball since the days when Hanson was considered to be good music. But based on PECOTA -- which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm -- Baseball Prospectus believes that catcher Matt Wieters is poised to be the Orioles' biggest disappointment in 2011.