Analysis

An increasing swath of the Baltimore region is caught up in a housing slump that is getting worse and appears to have further to fall. Average home-sale prices in the first six months of the year fell in a little more than half of Baltimore's suburban communities and a third of city neighborhoods, while sales volume in the region was the lowest for the first half of a year since 2000, a Sun analysis found. The number of areas with declining prices has swelled since 2006, the first full year of the housing market downturn.

With the playoffs starting tomorrow, an NFL fan might have one important question that has little to do with Marty Schottenheimer's postseason history, Rex Grossman's shaky passing or whether Bill Belichick has learned how to simulate fellowship with Eric Mangini. How do you navigate the Internet to enhance your football fix all the way through the Super Bowl? Pro football knowledge abounds on the Web. But identifying the best information while searching through league-wide sites, team pages, media-affiliated operations and independent bloggers can be overwhelming.

AFC EastBuffaloPick to watch: Price. A good second-round value, he can have an immediate impact on the passing game.Analysis: John Butler, the Bills' personnel chief, has a good reputation and he did well for a team drafting late, The Bills hit on their first two picks. Both filled needs because they've been hurting on the corner since Jeff Burris left a year ago and they needed another receiver to go with Eric Moulds now that Andre Reed is 35.Grade: BIndianapolisPick to watch: James. He has to prove he's as good as Ricky Williams.

AFC EastNew England Patriots1997 record: 10-6Draft picks: 10First round: Nos. 18 and 22.Analysis: With six of the first 82 picks -- including the New York Jets' choices in the first three rounds -- the Patriots could have the kind of draft that will keep them on top of the division. The key is whether they come out of it with a running back to replace Curtis Martin. If they don't trade up for Curtis Enis or Fred Taylor, they'll have to hope a good back falls to them. They also need a cornerback and a tight end, but replacing Martin is their top priority.

Under pressure from state politicians and the public, the Carroll County Board of Commissioners reversed yesterday a controversial decision -- made in a private meeting last week -- to increase their daily allowance by 650 percent.To the end, the two commissioners who had voted for the increase, Donald I. Dell and Richard T. Yates, defended their action."We're on solid legal ground," said Yates, who leaves office Monday. "I don't understand why we have to change our decision."Dell called the daily allowance a "pittance" and said, "We must find a way to adequately compensate the commissioners."

ANY CHANCE FOR an impartial, blue-ribbon study of the impact of gambling on this country vanished when Congress' two top Republicans chose extremists on both ends of the social spectrum for this federal panel. President Clinton compounded the problem this month by naming three more members who are far from impartial. And, finally, the congressional GOP leaders finished the debacle by choosing an ardent social conservative to chair this panel.Instead of giving Americans a solid, down-the-middle analysis of the implications of casinos, slots parlors, sports betting and lotteries, this panel will be incapable of agreeing on much of anything.

AFC EastBuffaloRd., No., Player, Pos., College1, 23, Antowain Smith, RB, Houston2, 52, Marcellus Wiley, DE, Columbia4, 120, Jamie Nails, OT, Florida, A&M5, 153, Sean Woodson, S, Jackson State6, 185, Marcus Spriggs, OT, Houston7, 226, Pat Fitzgerald, TE, TexasPick to watch: Wiley. It's a big jump from the Ivy League to the NFL, but the Bills are gambling he can eventually replace Bruce Smith.Analysis: Sometimes, the best moves are the ones you don't make. The Bills thought they'd have to trade up to get Smith in the first round, but they got a break when Tampa Bay selected Warrick Dunn with the 12th pick and no other team above their 23rd slot wanted a running back.

AFC EastNew England Patriots1996 record: 11-5 (won division, lost in Super Bowl)Picks: 9First round: No. 29Analysis: The Patriots made the Super Bowl even though their defense ranked 19th overall and 28th against the pass. That's why personnel chief Bobby Grier is likely to stress defense in the draft. Oddly enough, coach Bill Parcells left in part because he wanted to to draft defense last year. But now he's gone and Grier has the two extra draft picks that the Patriots got from the Jets for the Parcells signing.

AFC EastBuffaloPick to watch: WR Eric Moulds -- They hope he's the next Andre Reed.Analysis: They faced a tough decision on the first round, when they bypassed Leeland McElroy, who could have been the next Thurman Thomas, for Moulds, because they think Thomas has a couple of years left. It was a need choice, even though McElroy was in the top 10 on the board. How Moulds plays will make or break this draft. They went for defense on the next four picks.Grade: B-IndianapolisPick to watch: WR Marvin Harrison -- He can help Jim Harbaugh's passing game.

WASHINGTON -- African-American leaders ended their election-year meeting yesterday with new resolve to end the Newt Gingrich-led revolution on Capitol Hill and to re-elect President Clinton despite his centrist rhetoric."

The Game: Ugly trends - bad penalties, big plays allowed - have arisen in three close defeats PG 2 The Analysis: Ravens pay dearly for not bringing back veteran Matt Stover PG 3

The MacDonalds' Glen Burnie house sold four days after they listed it with an agent. And the Baltimore home the couple moved into? They had to outbid another buyer for it. Not in the bubble days. This year. Falling prices and the $8,000 tax credit for new homeowners are tempting buyers back into the fray, in what could be the early signs of a turnaround for a housing market that's been declining since late 2005. In a third of the metro area's city neighborhoods and suburban communities, more homes changed hands in the first half of the year than during the same months last year, according to a Baltimore Sun analysis.

According to press reports, certain demonstrators, enraged that Congress wants to reform America's dysfunctional health insurance system, have adopted the tactics of the mob. These tactics have taken the form of brawls at town hall meetings, the hanging of a congressman in effigy, even threats. It would be easy to simply dismiss the perpetrators of these ugly incidents, to label them fools and scoundrels manipulated by corporate elites and right-wing lobby groups. But that would only prompt those who label these same groups "heroes" and "freedom fighters" to slam the door and walk away.

SportsCenter 6 p.m. [ESPN] It's a two-hour version, the perfect way to catch up on everything that happened during the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, including analysis by Digger Phelps and his magical matching highlighter, Dick Vitale (left) and another edition of his coaches praise-athon, and Hubert Davis shaking his head at both of them.

Warm enough? Scientists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York say that 2008 was the coolest year globally since 2000. But the same analysis concluded that, while cool for the new century, 2008 was still the ninth-warmest year for the planet since records began in 1880. The 10 warmest years have occurred between 1997 and 2008.

Vermont@Maryland 8 p.m. [Comcast SportsNet] Get your first look at this season's men's basketball Terps. Unless you've already made the trip to Comcast Center, in which case feel free to sit by your less aware friend and speak over the television commentary with your own, more informed analysis.

The FBI's failure to adequately inform the public about the veracity of bullet lead analysis has left many defendants in the dark about this discredited forensic evidence. It's taken a determined push from defense lawyers to shame the FBI into doing what it should have done two years ago: Help identify criminal convictions that turned on FBI analysis of this faulty evidence. But the help may be too late for defendants in states that have strict deadlines for raising post-conviction appeals.

A Baltimore County judge has ruled that fingerprint evidence, a mainstay of forensics for nearly a century, is not reliable enough to be used against a homicide defendant facing a possible death sentence - a finding that national experts described yesterday as unprecedented and potentially far-reaching. Baltimore County Circuit Judge Susan M. Souder's order bars prosecutors from using at trial the partial fingerprints lifted from the Mercedes of a Security Square Mall merchant who was fatally shot last year during an attempted carjacking at the shopping center.

An increasing swath of the Baltimore region is caught up in a housing slump that is getting worse and appears to have further to fall. Average home-sale prices in the first six months of the year fell in a little more than half of Baltimore's suburban communities and a third of city neighborhoods, while sales volume in the region was the lowest for the first half of a year since 2000, a Sun analysis found. The number of areas with declining prices has swelled since 2006, the first full year of the housing market downturn.

This week in The Sun Daily Preakness updates and features, complete coverage and analysis of Wednesday's draw, and special sections on Saturday and Sunday. Online Breaking news and expanded multimedia presentations at baltimoresun.com/preakness.