Hope, cynicism run high for second Obama term

Big new policies unlikely despite push on guns, immigration

  • A U.S. Capitol Police officer Jeffery stands guard on the inauguation plattform at the U.S. Capitol Building on January 18, 2013 in Washington, DC. The U.S. capital is preparing for the second inauguration of U.S. President Barack Obama, which will take place on January 21.
A U.S. Capitol Police officer Jeffery stands guard on the inauguation… (Mark Wilson/Getty Images )
January 19, 2013|By John Fritze, The Baltimore Sun

WASHINGTON — — Four years after he rode into the White House on a message of change, President Barack Obama is set to begin his second term Monday amid lowered expectations and a sense that his re-election has done little to alter the nation's fractured political landscape.

Despite talk about a major overhaul of immigration policy and a comprehensive plan to deal with gun violence, the Obama administration will immediately shift from the celebratory mood of the inaugural to another bitter, pressing fight with congressional Republicans over spending, taxes and budget deficits.

How much Obama can accomplish in his next term is anyone's guess, but few expect a continuation of the sweeping policies that defined his first years in office. Despite a convincing win in the November election, the country remains deeply divided over how to address the economy, immigration and the nation's spiraling debt.

"What is possible is hard to say because we have a tea party that I think is basically controlling the House and has Speaker [John] Boehner in a bind," said Rep. Elijah E. Cummings, a Baltimore Democrat, who said he hopes the administration can advance legislation on the economy, gun control and home foreclosures in the next term.

"The president has got to move this conversation away from reducing benefits for Social Security and Medicare," he said.

Obama's first term spanned the bailout of the American auto industry, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, upheaval in the Arab world, the killing of Osama bin Laden and the confirmation of two Supreme Court justices. But the past four years will likely be remembered more for his struggle against high unemployment and partisan gridlock.

Because of that — and with an eye on the short, two-year window to get anything done before the 2014 election — the administration is bracing for battles ahead, signaling that it intends to take a more assertive line with conservative Republicans who have pushed hard for deficit reduction. The first opportunity to test that approach will come next month, when lawmakers confront difficult choices that were delayed by this month's "fiscal cliff" deal.

The nation will hit its $14.6 trillion debt ceiling by mid-February, setting up the latest in a series of showdowns with Congress. House Republican leaders indicated Friday that they are open to a short-term debt ceiling increase, though it's not clear how much support that idea has within the caucus.

Polls show that Obama is starting his second term — which officially begins with a private swearing-in today — in a stronger position than he was in for much of his presidency. At 52 percent, his approval rating is up 8 percentage points from a year ago, according to a poll last week for the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Many remain hopeful that Obama can still deliver change.

Gwendolyn Stephens, whose son, Mario Williams, was shot and killed in East Baltimore three weeks before Obama was sworn in the first time, said she believes the president can make progress on gun control. The president unveiled a broad package of proposals last week in the wake of the Sandy Hook shootings, from reinstating the federal ban on assault weapons to requiring criminal background checks for all gun sales.

"Every time I see a child has lost their life because of a gun, it just tears my heart up because I know what the mother or the parent is going through," the 63-year-old Pikesville resident said. "If he could just do something,"

Yet voters are less optimistic about prospects for cooperation in Washington than they were in 2009, polling shows. And Obama's approval is lower than seven of the past eight presidents who won a second term, with George W. Bush as the one exception. Bill Clinton began his second term with a 59 percent approval rating. Ronald Reagan had 62 percent in the beginning of 1985.

"Unfortunately, this is a president that hasn't had the training ground like a Ronald Reagan or a Bill Clinton," California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the third-ranking Republican in the House, told Bloomberg Government's Capitol Gains in an interview scheduled to air today. "Every time this president has come and tried to make an agreement, he can't get there."

The current political dynamic — as well as the history of second presidential terms — suggests that Obama will be forced to settle on smaller initiatives rather than comprehensive reforms, experts say.

The White House is already working around Congress through executive actions that are faster to implement but are also less meaty than what can be accomplished legislatively. For example, rather than press for a rewrite of the 2001 No Child Left Behind Act to eliminate tough — and, most argue, unattainable — requirements for schools, the U.S. Department of Education granted waivers to 34 states, including Maryland.

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