Rain (not snow) showers likely next week

November 23, 2012|By Scott Dance, The Baltimore Sun

Forecasters are watching a weather system that is expected to approach Maryland from the southwest by the middle of next week, but don't expect it to be cold enough to produce snow here.

AccuWeather's Henry Margusity is predicting snow possible across an area from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic and up to New England, but any precision depends on what sort of track the system takes.

The National Weather Service's hydrometeorological predictions don't extend out far enough to touch on the possibility, but the Baltimore/Washington forecast office is only calling for a 30 percent chance of rain showers across Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures are forecast in the mid-40s and lower-50s.

Local meteorologist Eric the Red is predicting a cold rain, though some models suggest it could mix with or turn to wet snow in areas north and west of Baltimore.

Of course, there is still time for the forecast to change. WMAR-TV meteorologist Mike Masco said via Twitter some more recent model runs are showing temperatures more likely to plummet, making wintry precipitation more feasible.

Regardless, Maryland is in for a spell much colder than the past few weeks have been. That is in part because of the indicator known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, which measures the difference in pressure between two points, one in Iceland and the other in the Azores.

The NAO has turned slightly negative and is forecast to plummet further, which means more Arctic air reaching further southward, along with the possibility of coastal storms.

Have a weather question? E-mail me at sdance@baltsun.com or tweet to @MdWeather.

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