Storm chances weaken but rain likely overnight

October 18, 2012|By Scott Dance, The Baltimore Sun

Chances for stormy weather tonight have dwindled in forecasts, but overnight rain with a few rumbles of thunder are possible Thursday night.

A cold front is advancing eastward from the Ohio and Mississippi valleys toward the Appalachians, but moist air that was expected to rise north from the Gulf of Mexico is not moving as quickly as expected, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Forecasters there have thus canceled previous forecasts calling for a slight to moderate chance of severe weather.

The forecasters predict three distinct areas where there could be a recipe for storms, only one of them affecting Maryland and coming in the early to late afternoon. But with less instability in the atmosphere than previously expected, chances could easily fizzle.

The front is expected to bring rain overnight, starting around 9 p.m. AccuWeather blogger Elliot Abrams predicts a third of an inch or less, while the National Weather Service's Baltimore/Washington forecast office predicts more, potentially more than half of an inch.

Dry air is waiting behind the front for another beautiful fall weekend. Sunny skies are expected with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

Have a weather question? E-mail me at or tweet to @MdWeather.

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