AccuWeather predicts stormy summer with normal temperatures

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May 03, 2012|By Scott Dance is predicting an active summer for severe storms in Maryland, but not any prolonged heat spells, according to its summer weather outlook released Thursday.

Storms are expected to ride along the northeastern edge of hot-weather systems as they move from the Great Lakes toward the mid-Atlantic, a pattern meteorologists call "ring of fire" storms. In the early and middle parts of summer, in particular, the storms could bring damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes.

But blocking patterns over Canada and Greenland are expected to push long-lasting heat toward the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to be about normal.

By late summer, the shift from a La Nina system to an El Nino one is expected to be complete. The La Nina has been waning and was expected to reach neutral conditions by the end of April. The phenomena involve the temperature of surface water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator influencing global climate and weather patterns.

Good news comes with that shift: El Nino would bring above-average rainfall by August, potentially helping to cut into the year's rain deficit if it remains or worsens by then. (Rainfall as measured at BWI Marshall Airport is about 4 inches below normal so far this year.)

One or two significant rain events could hit in August, possibly including a tropical storm system. AccuWeather predicts that currents patterns will make the East Coast particularly at risk of tropical storm strikes.

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