Obamacare: the 2,300-page monstrosity

As Supreme Court takes of health reform, even the president's supporters are running away from it

Much of the analysis and politics surrounding Obamacare pertain to one overarching issue: the power of the federal government to regulate private economic behavior through the Commerce Clause. Progressives see a generally limitless connection, while conservatives advance the notion that private health insurance (particularly the decision to forgo such insurance) is a personal decision outside the reach of the federal government. In other words, the mere power of the federal government to regulate commerce among the states does not extend to forcing every American into the commercial insurance market. A possible complication for the GOP: Justice Antonin Scalia, a member of the Court's so-called "conservative majority," has (at times) adopted a more expansive view of Commerce Clause jurisdiction. Nevertheless, I (and many other observers) believe it more likely than not that the Court will strike down the mandate. The Court could strike all or only portions of the statute. A divided Congress would then attempt to figure out what to do next.

Next week: Obamacare's impact on Medicaid and individual choice.

Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.'s column appears Sundays. The former Maryland governor and member of Congress is a partner at the law firm King & Spalding and the author of "Turn this Car Around," a book about national politics. His email is [e-mail].