Week 15: Sam Farmer's NFL picks

December 17, 2010

Pro football reporter Sam Farmer breaks down the games.

Last week's record: 10-6 Against the spread: 7-9

Season: 121-87 Against the spread: 103-105

Noon Saints (10-3) at Ravens (9-4)

Line: Ravens by 1 1/2 Over/under: 43 1/2

Saints' offense just isn't same outside a dome, especially in cold against defense as stout as that of the Ravens.

Pick: Ravens 24, Saints 21

Noon Eagles (9-4) at Giants (9-4)

TV: WFLD-Ch. 32

Line: Giants by 3 Over/under: 46

Giants have knocked five quarterbacks out of games this season. Their problem, though, will be getting to Michael Vick. That's not easy.

Pick: Eagles 28, Giants 24

Noon Chiefs (8-5) at Rams (6-7)

Line: Off Over/under: Off

With playoff spots within reach, motivation won't be problem. Chiefs are much better at home than on road. Can Matt Cassel pick up where he left off?

Pick: Rams 21, Chiefs 20

Noon Jaguars (8-5) at Colts (7-6)

TV: WBBM-Ch. 2

Line: Colts by 5. Over/under: 48 1/2

Peyton Manning has way of winning at home, but it will take a lot to knock off playoff-minded Jaguars because Colts are so one-dimensional.

Pick: Colts 21, Jaguars 17

Noon Bills (3-10) at Dolphins (7-6)

Line: Dolphins by 5 1/2 Over/under: 40

Dolphins are 1-5 at home. That's a troubling trend, especially against opponent that can be surprisingly tough.

Pick: Bills 17, Dolphins 14

Noon Browns (5-8) at Bengals (2-11)

Line: Bengals by 1 1/2 Over/under: 40

Browns' defense is third in interceptions. That could be big problem for Carson Palmer, who leads AFC with 18 picks, many at worst time.

Pick: Browns 21, Bengals 14

Noon Texans (5-8) at Titans (5-8)

Line: Titans by 1 1/2 Over/under: 47 1/2

Round 2 for Andre Johnson and Cortland Finnegan. Texans won last meeting 20-0 and things haven't gotten much better for Titans.

Pick: Texans 23, Titans 17

Noon Cardinals (4-9) at Panthers (1-12)

Line: Panthers by 2 1/2 Over/under: 38

This is matchup of two bad teams, both with quarterback problems. There's some infighting among Panthers and they look to have given up.

Pick: Cardinals 20, Panthers 17

Noon Redskins (5-8) at Cowboys (4-9)

Line: Cowboys by 6 Over/under: 46

Cowboys will have ample opportunity to roll up yards against league-worst Redskins' defense that's allowing almost 400 yards per game.

Pick: Cowboys 28, Redskins 20

Noon Lions (3-10) at Buccaneers (8-5)

Line: Bucs by 5 1/2 Over/under: 43

Lions haven't won road game since 2007, and Bucs are 8-0 against teams with sub-.500 records.

Pick: Bucs 24, Lions 20

3:05 p.m. Falcons (11-2) at Seahawks (6-7)

Line: Falcons by 6 Over/under: 45

With no running game and porous offensive line, Seahawks will have big problems keeping Falcons from swarming Matt Hasselbeck.

Pick: Falcons 31, Seahawks 20

3:15 p.m. Broncos (3-10) at Raiders (6-7)

Line: Raiders by 6 Over/under: 43 1/2

This isn't likely to be 59-14 like the first time around, but Broncos are in downward spiral and Raiders have incentive.

Pick: Raiders 35, Broncos 17

3:15 p.m. Jets (9-4) at Steelers (10-3)

TV: WBBM-Ch. 2

Line: Steelers by 6 Over/under: 36

Mark Sanchez is struggling and Jets haven't scored an offensive touchdown in nine quarters. Troy Polamalu and Steelers are no cure for that.

Pick: Steelers 14, Jets 10

7:20 p.m. Packers (8-5) at Patriots (11-2)

TV: WMAQ-Ch. 5

Line: Off Over/under: Off

Even if Aaron Rodgers is ready to return, Packers — like everyone — face stiff challenge in beating Tom Brady on home turf.

Pick: Patriots 28, Packers 21

7:30 p.m. Monday Bears (9-4) at Vikings (5-8)


Line: Off board. Over/under: Off

Bears won by two touchdowns first time they played this season — and that's when Vikings had Brett Favre at quarterback.

Pick: Bears 35, Vikings 14

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