O'Malley widens lead over Ehrlich

In anti-incumbent year, negative ads appear to have helped governor firm up Democratic base and win over independents

October 23, 2010|By Julie Bykowicz and Annie Linskey, The Baltimore Sun

Gov. Martin O'Malley has opened a 14-point lead over former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in their gubernatorial rematch, solidifying his Democratic base and winning over independents while his rival struggles to capitalize on the voter anger that is propelling Republicans in other parts of the country, according to a Baltimore Sun poll.

Democrats who had been undecided during the summer are lining up behind O'Malley, who enjoys wide margins in the vote-rich Washington suburbs of Montgomery and Prince George's counties and has a narrow edge in the Baltimore suburbs — regions where Ehrlich had hoped to make inroads.

"It appears that O'Malley has shifted this race overall," said Steve Raabe, president of the Annapolis polling firm OpinionWorks, which conducted the statewide telephone survey of 798 likely voters for The Sun.

With more than eight of 10 O'Malley backers describing their support as "firm," Raabe said, the incumbent "has done a good job of securing his base." Democratic voters in Maryland seem "to be equally motivated" as Republicans, who have long smelled victory in the current political climate, Raabe said.

Louise Wright, a Baltimore Democrat, is planning to vote for O'Malley, saying "he just did an excellent job as mayor of Baltimore and he did an excellent job as governor."

"He shows integrity," said Wright, 64, who participated in the survey and agreed to share her views with Sun journalists. "He inherited a mess, and I think Maryland has done remarkably well given the overall economy. I hope he wins."

O'Malley leads Ehrlich 52 percent to 38 percent, the largest spread of any publicly reported poll during the campaign. The result continues a trend showing O'Malley breaking away in a race that was once a dead heat. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

O'Malley beat then-Governor Ehrlich by 6.5 percentage points in 2006.

More than four in 10 respondents to the survey conducted from Oct. 15 to 20 said they want to elect new candidates to office, a finding that tracks with national polls.

But the sentiment doesn't appear to be helping Ehrlich. After a total of 20 years in the General Assembly, Congress and the governor's mansion, Raabe said, Ehrlich is viewed by voters as a "quasi-incumbent."

"He doesn't get the change mantle," Raabe said.

Despite the anti-incumbent mood, and despite the 44 percent of voters who said the state economy is getting worse, respondents had a largely favorable view of O'Malley. Television ads portraying him as a champion of business and education all summer went largely unanswered by Ehrlich, who said recently that he simply did not have the money to buy airtime at that point.

O'Malley's 52 percent favorable rating is up slightly from the 48 percent he registered in a January 2008 Sun poll. Ehrlich's popularity, meanwhile, has dipped: When he was governor from 2003 to 2007, his favorable rating remained consistently above 50 percent in several Sun polls. In the current survey, it has fallen to 43 percent; an equal percentage said they hold an unfavorable view of him.

Ad campaign

One explanation could be the onslaught of O'Malley ads portraying Ehrlich as a high-paid corporate player aligned with big business. O'Malley has been "hammering away" at Ehrlich's image, Raabe said.

Ehrlich has called the O'Malley ads "goofy." But he didn't begin airing his own television advertisements until mid-September, and didn't hit the expensive Washington market until more recently.

Poll respondents expressed distaste for the commercials from both campaigns, which are expected to continue in force until Election Day.

"I'm just turned off by both of the candidates and the ads they're putting up," said Braxton Richardson, 63, a registered Democrat in Silver Spring. "I would rather they spend money to share something with me about what they intend to do."

Richardson said he voted for O'Malley four years ago, and would do so again — but reluctantly.

When contacted for the survey, Louis Houghton declared himself undecided in the gubernatorial race. But when reached later by The Sun, the St. Mary's County Republican said he had made up his mind to vote for Ehrlich. Houghton, 69, said he had been "willing to give O'Malley a chance, but there's just so much untruth in his ads."

The poll results anticipate that Republicans will make up 30 percent of the electorate. Republicans make up 27 percent of registered voters in the state; Raabe said he bumped up their participation to reflect their increased motivation this year. Among Republican voters, Ehrlich leads O'Malley 75 percent to 11 percent.

Raabe dropped the proportion of black voters to 19 percent, down from the record 25 percent two years ago, when President Barack Obama was on the ballot. Among black voters, O'Malley leads Ehrlich 88 percent to 4 percent.

Turnout, turnout, turnout

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