October 21, 2010|By Ron Smith
When asked about political "attack ads," American voters overwhelmingly express their disapproval of them. Yet negative ads persist because they work. As Nov. 2 approaches, the airwaves are filled with such ads accusing rival candidates of all sorts of dastardly deeds, of possessing questionable character and of being stooges of powerful special interests.
I read an interesting comment by political science professor Ken Warren of St. Louis University that people often have the misconception that negative ads must be true in order to be aired. In fact, he said, studies show that "false negative ads" are the most effective ones. They are the hardest to refute, since the candidate who was attacked has to come up with a clear and salable response as to how the ad was untrue.
In Maryland's gubernatorial rematch, it's probably impossible to determine how much the expensive, relentless advertising by Gov. Martin O'Malley's campaign accusing former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. of all sorts of nasty things has affected the race.
Maybe the incumbent pulling ahead decisively enough that the Republican Governors Association has cancelled ad buys for Mr. Ehrlich would have happened anyway in this bluest of blue states, where any Republican running for statewide office is truly skating uphill.
But the truth is more likely along the lines suggested by political analyst Blair Lee on WBAL Radio Wednesday morning. He says the Gonzales Poll released a few days ago showing Mr. O'Malley's widening lead — 47 percent to 42 percent, with a mere 6 percent undecided — is a result of the power of negative advertising.
Governor O'Malley's positives have dropped, but not as much as his opponent's. This is proof the attack ads have worked, according to Mr. Lee.
While the Ehrlich campaign struggled to raise cash after a late entrance into the race, Mr. O'Malley was sitting on more than $6 million, which his campaign immediately began deploying in ads accusing his predecessor of being a lobbyist for Big Oil, somehow being responsible for the Gulf oil spill, and of raising taxes and fees during his term.
And there was the clever use of Bob Ehrlich's own recorded voice in an O'Malley ad saying, "We made money, a lot of money," context be damned. Over and over, we heard these ads on the radio. Heck, they played countless times on my own show, even though the governor's people had to know they weren't reaching their base. It was as though they were saying they have enough money to spend a goodly amount thumbing their noses at the Ehrlich base.
Early on, there was speculation that attack ads beginning so early in the campaign were a sign of real worry on the part of the governor that he was vulnerable. Well, yeah. The winds that blew GOP candidates, including the governor of Maryland, out of office in 2006 had clearly reversed.
Polls now show a likely Republican takeover of the House, a gain of several Senate seats and a bunch of gubernatorial wins.
Bob Ehrlich seemed reluctant to announce he would run against his successor. What we're witnessing now is what he was no doubt worried about. He has always said conditions have to be just perfect for a Republican to win the governorship. He ran and won in 2002 because of the extraordinary weakness as a candidate of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the presumptive, and later actual, Democratic nominee.
I remember him saying if he had thought Martin O'Malley would be the candidate back then, he wouldn't have entered the contest. Perhaps that explains the hesitation this time. Perhaps Republican Scott Brown's U.S. Senate win in Massachusetts over the anointed Democratic successor to the recently departed Ted Kennedy was decisive in pushing him to declare. But I'm just guessing.
There's no question that in order for Mr. Ehrlich to win on Election Day, he has to appeal to so-called Reagan Democrats, who voted for him in substantial numbers eight years ago. Maybe that's the reason he vehemently distanced himself from what he called "the Palin Wing" of the Republican Party.
Did this disturb many of his core voters? Will they still trudge to the polls to vote for him? We'll find out soon.
Ron Smith can be heard weekdays, 9 a.m. to noon, on 1090 WBAL-AM and WBAL.com. His column appears Fridays in The Baltimore Sun. His e-mail is rsmith@wbal.com.
