Week 3: Sam Farmer's NFL picks

September 24, 2010|By Sam Farmer

Pro football reporter Sam Farmer breaks down the games.

Last week's record: 10-6 Against the spread: 6-10

Season: 20-12 Against the spread: 13-19

SUNDAY'S GAMES

Steelers (2-0) at Bucs (2-0), noon

Line: Steelers by 3 Over/under: 33

Steelers are patching things together at quarterback, but they still have the kind of blitzing defense that can cause big problems for opposing passers.

Pick: Steelers 21, Bucs 14

Titans (1-1) at Giants (1-1), noon, WBBM-Ch. 2

Line: Giants by 3 Over/under: 42

Titans are coming off a disastrous game in which they turned over the ball seven times. Giants are emotionally drained but at home.

Pick: Giants 21, Titans 17

Falcons (1-1) at Saints (2-0), noon

Line: Saints by 4 Over/under: 49

Saints should be able to get passing game going at home against a Falcons team that lacks a great pass rush and has depth issues at corner.

Pick: Saints 24, Falcons 21

Lions (0-2) at Vikings (0-2), noon, WFLD-Ch. 32

Line: Vikings by 11 Over/under: 42

Vikings finally should pick up their first victory. Lions have shown an ability to hang close against tough opponents, though, so this could be interesting.

Pick: Vikings 28, Lions 24

Cowboys (0-2) at Texans (2-0), noon

Line: Texans by 3 Over/under: 47

Texans are finally learning to slam the door on teams. They're also 10-3 over the past four years against the NFC. Dallas is making too many mistakes.

Pick: Texans 27, Cowboys 21

Browns (0-2) at Ravens (1-1), noon

Line: Ravens by 10.5 Over/under: 37

Ravens are having a difficult time putting points on board, but at least their defense has yet to surrender a touchdown.

Pick: Ravens 17, Browns 10

Bengals (1-1) at Panthers (0-2), noon

Line: Bengals by 3 Over/under: 38

Rookie Jimmy Clausen will make his first start, and Panthers are generating next to no pass rush. Bengals will present a challenge, if Carson Palmer can get rolling.

Pick: Bengals 20, Panthers 10

Bills (0-2) at Patriots (1-1), noon

Line: Patriots by 14 Over/under: 42

Patriots have their soft spots on defense, but Bills aren't likely to exploit them. Bills will try to slow things down by running.

Pick: Patriots 31, Bills 13

49ers (0-2) at Chiefs (2-0), noon

Line: 49ers by 2.5 Over/under: 36

49ers woke up in Week 2 and gave Saints a good fight. It's hard to buy into Chiefs just yet, a team that has converted 6 of 26 third downs.

Pick: 49ers 30, Chiefs 20

Eagles (1-1) at Jaguars (1-1), 3:05 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 3 Over/under: 44

Jaguars would much rather see Kevin Kolb in this game than Michael Vick, but they don't get a choice. Vick is a game-changer. Eagles' defense is vulnerable, though.

Pick: Eagles 28, Jaguars 24

Redskins (1-1) at Rams (0-2), 3:05 p.m.

Line: Redskins by 3.5 Over/under: 38

Redskins are a different team away from home, having lost 10 of their last 11 road games. Rams have kept things close, but their offense lacks playmakers.

Pick: Redskins 17, Rams 13

Colts (1-1) at Broncos (1-1), 3:15 p.m., WBBM-Ch. 2

Line: Colts by 5.5 Over/under: 48

Playing at home always seems to give Broncos an edge, but they will be hard-pressed to stop an Indianapolis team that can be balanced when it wants to be.

Pick: Colts 31, Broncos 21

Raiders (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1), 3:15 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 4.5 Over/under: 39

Raiders have switched to Bruce Gradkowski, and he can get the offense going. Cardinals have been pretty undisciplined with two 10-penalty games.

Pick: Raiders 21, Cardinals 20

Chargers (1-1) at Seahawks (1-1), 3:15 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 5.5 Over/under: 44

Chargers tend to be erratic early in the season, so they easily could lay an egg. But if they play the way they did Sunday, they have too many playmakers.

Pick: Chargers 28, Seahawks 20

Jets (1-1) at Dolphins (2-0), 7:20 p.m., WMAQ-Ch. 5

Line: Dolphins by 2.5 Over/under: 35

With Darrelle Revis nursing a bum hamstring, Jets are vulnerable in secondary. Brandon Marshall burned Antonio Cromartie a lot in their Broncos-Chargers days.

Pick: Dolphins 14, Jets 10

MONDAY'S GAME

Packers (2-0) at Bears (2-0), 7:30 p.m., ESPN, WCIU-Ch. 26

Line: Packers by 3 Over/under: 46

Pass protection could be a problem for Bears, even though they have played surprisingly well so far and are 4-1 in last five "Monday Night Football" games.

Pick: Packers 28, Bears 17

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