Which horse will win the Preakness on Saturday?

Four Corners

May 14, 2010

John Cherwa

Los Angeles Times

The smart thing when handicapping the Kentucky Derby is to throw out the obvious best horse. Too many things can go wrong.

When picking for the Preakness, you just look for the best horse. And in that department the likely choice to win is Lookin at Lucky, the snakebit Bob Baffert horse who was still competitive in two races marked by disasterous trips. Saturday, with new rider Martin Garcia, will be his day, especially breaking from the middle of the field in the seven spot.

Underneath Lucky in the exacta and tri, give thought to favorite Super Saver, the Derby winner; Paddy O'Prado, who finished third in the Derby; and for value take a shot with Schoolyard Dreams, who beat Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby. He's also had two straight bullet workouts.

jcherwa2@tribune.com

Neil Milbert

Chicago Tribune

Better late than never, I'm picking Super Saver to win the Preakness.

In what seemed a wide-open Kentucky Derby, I had a hunch that he would run a good race but my hunch that Awesome Act would run a better race turned out to a hoax and, alas, I wound up with the 19th-place finisher instead the winner.

Although Super Saver's record suffers when stacked up against that of such recent Kentucky Derby/Preakness winners as Smarty Jones and Big Brown, the injury to his stablemate Eskendereya has left us with a poor crop of 3-year-olds.

Super Saver has the early speed that is a significant asset in a race with a relatively big field and, in addition to excelling at Churchill Downs, he has run creditable races at Saratoga, Belmont, Tampa Bay Downs and Oaklawn Park.

sports@tribune.com

Kevin Van Valkenburg

Baltimore Sun

The Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, is a good horse. But it's hard to argue that he's a great horse. He's efficient at getting over the ground and he barely looks tired after he runs a race, but until the Derby, he hadn't shown he was capable of putting all that together to win consistently.

Lookin at Lucky has show that. He was a champion 2-year-old and a consistent winner until he started running into traffic and trouble in his last two races. That won't be the case this time, which is why I think the Preakness is his race to lose.

Getting stuck on the rail ruined Lookin at Lucky's Derby chances, but even after getting bounced off the rail twice, he still fought back to finish sixth. That's a sign of a horse with a lot of speed and stamina. A jockey change might be exactly what he needs to change his fortunes.

kvanvalkenburg@tribune.com

Tom Jicha

Sun Sentinel

There's no apparent reason why Super Saver shouldn't add the Preakness to his Kentucky Derby jewel and head to Belmont gunning for the Triple Crown.

He meets a less accomplished group in Baltimore than he did in Louisville. But it should not be overlooked that Calvin Borel worked out a perfect trip in the Derby and Super Saver might love Churchill as much as Borel does. Todd Pletcher's colt is two-for-two there but one-for-five elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Lookin at Lucky, who was virtually eliminated when he drew the deadly one post in the Derby, has lucky No. 7, an ideal starting slot, for the Preakness. He'll be a better price than Super Saver, too. Go for it.

Tjicha@tribune.com

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