Baltimore Sun Preakness Day picks

Horse-racing picks for The Baltimore Sun for Preakness Day

May 14, 2010|By Liam Durbin | Special to The Baltimore Sun

Race 1

Analysis: Expect Wink at the Girls to show nice tactical speed. Although stretching out from recent efforts, Wink at the Girls has won at this distance before and has been running at cheaper tracks, but has never raced over this track. Rascal Cat should lead for a while, but does not look to be able to carry the whole way. Dangerous has likely speed but would still be a stretch at this distance. Rehoboth will try to come from further back. Rehobeth has some back class so would be no surprise. Kurbat gets flattering odds at 2-1 but I'm not that impressed. Too cheap to be a heavy favorite.

Long Shot: 5-1 odds on Rehoboth looks like value. This is a pretty cheap bunch, and he is one with some class. He seems to be pointing to a return to form.

What to bet: Daily double wheel: Rehoboth and Wink At The Girls with Noah's Dream, Mikoshi and Crew.

Race 2

Analysis: Class Bopper sometimes flashes speed and sometimes comes from way back. Today will likely concede the lead to Noah's Dream. Noah's Dream is lightly raced but has hit the board in half his races. Noah's Dream just missed in the Federico Tesio Stakes as the second betting choice but will be respected today against what looks to be a much softer crowd. Empty Handed has disappointed in the recent past but has some excuses and has been running with much better horses. New Believer ships in off a nice win at Keeneland. If he can repeat that performance he should be in the money. Mikoshi is the computer's class of the race.

Long shot: Crew has two lifetime wins but both over this track and will be hoping for a solid pace to set up his late run. At 20-1, he looks really interesting.

What to bet: Exacta Box Mikoshi, New Believer, Noah's Dream and Crew. Same box for trifecta if that's your preference.

Race 3

Analysis: A few in here are lightly raced, and they drift to the top of the computer rankings. Convoy Ahead earns top speed, class and form. He is one of the few with a win other than a maiden. However, he has not been racing in the same circuit as these and is anything but a lock. He seems to be the horse to beat. Idolatry has just a maiden win and in less-than-impressive company. Baiano tried the jump from maiden to allowance but came up way short. Liquidity Event earns the morning line favorite's spot, but he does so off just a maiden win.

Long Shot: Black Gabriel is another with a win other than maiden, who made the jump to allowance, and just missed.

What to bet: Trifecta wheel Convoy Ahead and Liquidity Event with Convoy Ahead, Liquidity Event, Idolatry and Black Gabriel.

Race 4

Analysis: Northpoint Costas stretches out to a distance I'm not sure he wants. Should be sole speed but this is a lot further to run than he seems to like. Two Doo comes in from a win, but it looks like a race I could have won with a small head start. He has been running with a weak crowd. Court Band seems to never be too far from the money and even has a couple of wins on form. Court Band has been running with a better crowd than most of these so should improve today against this soft field. Quantico Hero will be gunning for it early. Quantico Hero should get some pressure to keep him in check. No Brakes is a solid competitor who will be running well late.

Long Shot: Court Band will probably go off at longer odds than his 5-1 morning line. He's a good price at 5-1 or higher.

What to bet: Throw out the favorite and box Court Band, No Brakes, Quantico Hero and Thunder Charm in an exacta or trifecta.

Race 5

Analysis: Full field and a fairly competitive bunch should make for a fun race. Hold Your Money comes out as the computer's best speed, but it is anything but blazing gate speed. Look for a more reasonable pace. Killarney Bay has never raced on turf but someone must think he can do it. Lighthouse Sound is making a rapid pace climb. Lighthouse Sound should run out of rungs soon. Yer Man is a solid performer that has hit the board in four straight. Macho Chick was well bet after shipping in from New York. He is very dangerous again. He will likely be overlooked because of his fourth place last time out, but I think it actually was a strong effort.

Long Shot: Killarney Bay earned the computer program's top ranking overall. Not bad for a horse starting at 10-1. You won't get 10-1 on him, but will probably get 6-1.

What to bet: Key Macho Chick over Killarney Bay, Yer Man, Lighthouse Sound, and Hold Your Money in an exacta and trifecta. Put some win money on Macho Chick if he goes above 4-1.

Race 6

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