Stay away from the favorites

May 01, 2010|By Liam Durbin | Tribune Newspapers

This is one of the most wide open races in recent Derby history. Very flattering early odds for Lookin At Lucky, considering he lost his last Derby prep, has just one race on real dirt, drew the inside post, and has limited experience outside of California. His closing style should help since this race is stacked with early speed and that should help offset the disadvantage of the inside post.

Sidney's Candy had a tough task already, being one of many early speed horse in the race, but things got worse when he drew the outside post. Big Brown did it from there, but Sidney's Candy does not appear to be as much of a freak as Big Brown. Tough to see him getting it done from so wide a start. His chances improve if he can rate, but there is little evidence he can do so. The computer placed Conveyance next, buoyed by his speed score, but his need to lead early could make him a pace casualty.

Late running horses should be the most pace advantaged. That group includes Ice Box, Dublin, Awesome Act, Stately Victor and Dean's Kitten. Of those, Ice Box and Stately Victor come in off the most impressive wins. Dublin has great classic breeding, being sired by Afleet Alex, but has underachieved as the favorite in two recent attempts. This distance should suit him but he will need to step up his game.

This race looks like a great opportunity to bet away from the favorites, since both have big obstacles to overcome. I recommend betting away from all the early running types and go for a closer. Look at Ice Box, Dublin and Stately Victor. For value, Dean's Kitten seems to have been snubbed by the oddsmaker. Even though he is a turf horse by breeding, he has won on dirt and his racing style is to close late. That will improve his chances further.

1. Lookin at Lucky
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Odds: 9-1

2. Ice Box
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Odds: 11-1

3. Noble's Promise
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Willie Martinez
Odds: 20-1

4. Super Saver
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Odds: 7-1

5. Line of David
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Odds: 15-1

6. Stately Victor
Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Alan Garcia
Odds: 16-1

7. American Lion
Trainer: Eoin Harty
Jockey: David Flores
Odds: 25-1

8. Dean's Kitten
Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Odds: 18-1

9. Make Music for Me
Trainer: Alexis Barba
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Odds: 25-1

10. Paddy O'Prado
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Odds: 11-1

11. Devil May Care
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Odds: 11-1

12. Conveyance
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Odds: 25-1

13. Jackson Bend
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Mike Smith
Odds: 22-1

14. Mission Impazible
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Odds: 24-1

15. Discreetly Mine
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: J. Castellano
Odds: 41-1

16. Awesome Act
Trainer: Jeremy Noseda
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Odds: 13-1

17. Dublin
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: T. Thompson
Odds: 21-1

18. Backtalk
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: Miguel Mena
Odds: 20-1

19. Homeboykris
Trainer: Rick Dutrow Jr.
Jockey: R. Dominguez
Odds: 17-1

20. Sidney's Candy
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Odds: 11-1

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