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Readers Respond

September 29, 2009

Robert L. Caret, Towson

The writer is president of Towson University.

Does Vatz question poll methods or results?

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To quote Mark Twain, "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that ain't so."

It's certainly instructive to get a critique of our latest poll from rhetoric professor Richard Vatz of Towson University ("In Md. poll, consider what wasn't asked," Sept. 24). He's a well-known and frequent commentator on radio and political blogs. We can't help but wonder, however, what Mr. Vatz's reaction might have been had our poll showed former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in a dead heat with Gov. Martin O'Malley instead of trailing by double digits?

Professor Vatz states, "The lack of serious attention to intensity is one of the strongest factors leading to poll inaccuracy. Primary-election polls are more vulnerable than polls right before a general election because perception and knowledge of candidates are so unstable." He then proceeds to cite Hillary Clinton outperforming pre-election polls by about 12 points in New Hampshire's Democratic presidential primary last year.

Actually, the strongest factor leading to poll inaccuracy in primary election polls - as we're confident most professionals will agree - is predicting turnout. In New Hampshire's Democratic presidential primary last year, 288,000 voted, compared to 219,000 in 2004, an increase of 31.5 percent.

Could we have asked additional questions in our most recent Maryland statewide poll? Of course. And as we get closer to next year's election, when it's not 14 months away and voters become more focused, we'll undoubtedly do that. But Professor Vatz seems fixated on what issues might make former Governor Ehrlich's chances look better in 2010.

There is an easy way to answer this. We would recommend the commissioning of a poll - Professor Vatz could help write the questions - and find out what issues might gain Mr. Ehrlich more support next year.

Patrick E. Gonzales and Laslo V. Boyd, Annapolis Patrick E. Gonzales is president of Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies, and Laslo V. Boyd is a partner at the company.

Liberal entitlement at gym

Extra, extra. Front page shocker. Spoiled Columbia babe miffed to learn "diversity" includes viewpoints and opinions not to her liking ("Patron asks gym in left-leaning Columbia to tune out Fox News," Sept. 25). Can't fathom how over-regulated, Disney-esque La-La Land Columbia kowtows to First Amendment despite 24/7 assault via ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC and the nanny shenanigans of the Obama administration. Can't get a bailout for her rowboat to nowhere.

The question remains, however: How is this silly anecdote of selfish, wacky, liberal entitlement deserving of front page news space at the once great Baltimore Sun?

Susan Mayer, Ellicott City

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