Gov. Martin O'Malley learned last week why to hate economists. In the same week that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke declared the recession "very likely" over and less than a month after shrinking the state's general fund budget to three-year-old levels, he's now been told he must cut about $300 million right away - and instead of a $1 billion shortfall next year, it looks to be $2 billion.
Forecasts, shmorecasts.
Like a concrete block tossed in a pond, the ripple effect of high unemployment rates continues to spread long after the initial splash. Lost jobs means lost income tax revenue, and the latest estimates are that Maryland's situation is worse (and the economic recovery is going to be slower) than was foreseen a mere month ago.
For anyone who remembers the last major recession in the early 1990s, the downward spiral is a familiar ride. It was just as painful for then-Gov. William Donald Schaefer, who presided over Board of Public Works meetings with the disdain of a vegetarian forced into butchery and helpless to do much more than hack away at popular and much-needed education, health and public safety programs on a regular basis.
Trim fat and waste? Mr. O'Malley's options are not nearly so easy. The days of such easy choices are over. Just ask those Eastern Shore lawmakers who appeared before the Board of Public Works last week to plead the case for keeping open a state-run community mental health center in Chestertown that is due to close in February as a result of the last round of budget reductions.
No doubt that closing will hurt people. It will mean many living on the Eastern Shore will have to find treatment far from their homes. Some may not get help at all.
But guess what? More such sacrifices are going to have to be made, not fewer. Health care, education and public safety: That's the majority of the state budget. Never mind the audacious hypocrisy of Shore Republicans, always pious voices for cutting spending in Annapolis, pleading for funding to be restored for the sake of their constituents - they'll have a lot of company in that department before the recession is all said and done.
A lot of sacred cows are going to be headed for the slaughterhouse: Tuition freezes and aid to private colleges are nice things when the money is available, but those days are gone. State employee health benefits can't be maintained at the status quo. Teacher retirement contributions? Local governments had better plan on picking up more of that tab next year.
