The Pentagon and the State Department increasingly factor these expected ramifications of man-made climate change into their strategic planning and policy development. But the impact on national security should also be part of the broader debate on emissions policy. The greater and more rapid the climate change, the more quickly these threats will emerge - and the greater will be the impact on our national security.
Thus, efforts by the United States to reduce carbon emissions and to lead the rest of the world in tackling global warming are partly an effort to reduce the likely threats to our own national security. As the military strategist Sun Tzu wrote more than 2,500 years ago, the very acme of military skill is never having to fight a battle. General Zinni echoed this wisdom recently, saying "we will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today ... or we'll pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives."
Some still cling to the tired argument that the link between human activity and climate change has not been "proven." But in military and strategic matters, we do not wait until a risk has actually exploded into reality or wait for potential threats to be proven before developing our defenses. We defend against our best estimate of the future threat. So even if some holdouts continue to doubt the causes of global warming, prudence still dictates that we act now to respond to the risk.
Of course, the scientific community overwhelmingly endorses the position that humans are causing global warming and that we are near the point of no return. Meaning, unless we take action now, climate change will increasingly and radically multiply the threats to our national security, and the future drain on our military resources will dwarf the economic cost of taking action today. And we will pay in blood as well as treasure. That is something we would do well to remember when we consider the climate change bill before the Senate.
Baltimore resident Craig Martin, a former naval officer and a lawyer, is a doctoral candidate and visiting faculty fellow at the University of Pennsylvania Law School. He is also a senior fellow of the Truman National Security Project. His e-mail is craigxmartin@gmail.com.
