Libya's Kadafi: The Method In His Madness

The answer of two of these political scientists, Patrick Chabal of the University of London and Jean-Pascal Daloz of the Center for African Studies in Bordeaux, France, has been widely discussed among African experts for being both concise and insightful. Put simply, disorder pays better. If you are in Mr. Kadafi's shoes, at the gambling table with 44 billion barrels of oil and the nearly constant noises of coup-plotters (either real or imagined) at the door, democracy's checks and balances do not look like a good bet.

Instead, Mr. Kadafi has placed his money on maintaining legitimacy at home through a combination of prestige-building and wealth creation. He still gets mileage out of denouncing the colonial-era misdeeds of foreigners. For their part, many Libyans expect Mr. Kadafi to take every opportunity to poke Western powers in the eye.

Mr. Kadafi's fortune, formed at first by expropriating Italian and Jewish businesses and then from oil revenues, may seem like a strange basis on which to claim legitimacy. But as Mr. Chabal and Mr. Daloz point out, "Ostentation is the widespread expectation of the populace [of African countries]."

The authors may paint an unfairly broad stroke, but Libyans themselves have a proverb that illustrates their perceived pitfalls of poverty: If your pocket gets empty, your faults will be many. Through his carefully crafted cult of personality and repression, Mr. Kadafi - the son of nomads - has exploited the cultural link between the notions of wealth and legitimacy.

There is a much-needed discussion to be had about Abdel Baset al-Megrahi's release and the future of the Libyan regime. But too often the conversation seems to assume that Mr. Kadafi's words and deeds are irrational simply because they may be morally reprehensible. One need not be cynical or apologetic to say that after 40 years of provocation and tyranny, the man is smarter than he is often made out to be. Or as my professor would put it, at least as smart as you and me.

Daniel Morris holds a master's degree in international relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. His e-mail is [e-mail].