A crisis lies just ahead even if population growth can be substantially slowed. It can best be understood by focusing on China, whose rapid industrialization and resultant higher standard of living means not only much higher energy consumption but also the ability to afford much more meat. More meat requires more grain. Retired oil executive Chuck Campbell, who pays close attention to these things, tells me that farmers worldwide now feed about 250 million tons more grain to animals than they did 20 years ago. It takes eight pounds of grain to produce one pound of beef. You can see the problem. Higher living standards have a multiplier effect on the demands made by expanding populations.
Meantime, many of us know that the chief reason we have armies on the ground in Eurasia is to maintain control of the energy heartland of the world. But not too many folks are aware of looming conflicts over access to fresh water supplies. The World Bank reports that 80 countries have water shortages that threaten health and economies, and that more than 2 billion people have no access to clean water and sanitation. We can expect armed conflict over water to become quite common.
