Sellers handed buyers the keys to more homes last month than they did a year ago, the first sales increase in the Baltimore metro area in 2 1/2 years and a hopeful sign for a housing market caught in the worst downturn since the Depression.
The uptick was modest - 2 percent - but every local jurisdiction saw a gain except Baltimore, and there the loss was just 1 percent. Multiple-listing service Metropolitan Regional Information Systems said Friday that 2,375 homes changed hands.
And pending deals, which aren't counted as sales because they haven't closed, were up 16 percent from a year ago.
This comes as average prices continued to fall, down 10 percent compared with June 2008.
Sellers capitulated to buyers who could not or would not pay more: The average home in the metro area sold for just under $290,000, about $30,000 less than its asking price.
An increase in sales is no guarantee of more to come - the last time that happened, it was a blip. A 4 percent increase in January 2007 was preceded by more than a year of declines and followed by many more. But Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com, thinks the long-awaited end of the housing slump is finally in view - at least in terms of sales.
"Prices have more to fall, given the high level of foreclosure, but sales and construction, I think, are at bottom," Zandi said. "And part of it is related to much-improved affordability."
Zandi's not expecting much in the way of sales gains, though. Just the promise of some stability after years of retrenching.
"As long as the job market is sinking, it's hard to imagine home sales taking off to any considerable degree," he said.
An unprecedented price run-up here and nationwide in the early part of the decade, helped along by low rates and loose lending rules, pushed prices beyond the reach of many prospective first-time buyers.
Sales started to slump in the fall of 2005. Falling values, rising foreclosures, tougher lending standards and - ultimately - a recession and Wall Street meltdown sidelined even more buyers. Half as many homes sold in the metro area last month as in June 2005, near the peak of the housing bubble.
But now, with average prices below what sellers got four years ago, buyers are re-emerging. Another carrot is the federal $8,000 tax credit for first-timers, which comes with a deadline: settle before Dec. 1.
