Many influenza researchers had expected swine flu to disappear this summer because that is how previous pandemics have behaved. In the 1918 pandemic, flu appeared in the spring and slowed down in the summer, only to rev up again in fall and winter.
Rene F. Najera, an epidemiologist with the state health department, said Maryland is now in an "acceleration phase" of the flu and he expects the peak to hit soon. He said "herd immunity" will force the flu to slow its pace.
"We'll hit a critical point where so many people are infected or recovering that it will be hard for it to jump from one person to the next," he said.
Cunningham said she expects cases to stay steady before increasing this fall.
It is unclear what this summer of flu could mean when it's actually flu season again. In the Southern Hemisphere, where flu season is just beginning, Argentina, Australia and other nations are reporting H1N1 outbreaks.
While there has long been a vaccine for seasonal flu, there isn't one for swine flu. Development is under way but the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has not decided whether a vaccine will be mass produced. If that decision is yes, the agency's secretary has suggested that 600 million doses of vaccine would have to be manufactured.
Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious diseases expert at Vanderbilt University, said he worries that H1N1 is off the radar screens of most people - and of doctors.
"What I have seen among patients and some physicians is, they're kind of blowing it off," he said. "They're kind of nonchalant about it.
"If people don't take it seriously, if vaccine is going to be administered, they won't take advantage of it."
Tips for avoiding H1N1 flu
* Wash your hands often with soap and water.
* Cover your nose and mouth when you cough or sneeze.
* Avoid close contact with sick people.
* If you have flu-like symptoms, stay home to keep from infecting others and spreading the virus.
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
