Gov. Martin O'Malley laid out a vision for the state last week when addressing hundreds of local officials at a convention. Even though his term ends next year, his plan extends for five years.
The governor's rhetoric could be taken as a subliminal campaign message, conveying to voters that he intends to seek re-election and be around for a second term. While O'Malley hasn't officially announced his candidacy, and several potential challengers have yet to make their plans known, the 2010 race has begun in subtle ways like this.
O'Malley, a Democrat, has been laying the groundwork by getting an early jump on fund-raising and broadly outlining issues that are likely to become part of his platform. He often returns to a handful of key themes, such as the environment, public safety and education, and touts accomplishments such as Maryland's top-ranked public schools.
But some leaders within his own party haven't been won over by O'Malley's performance. Democratic opponents have been meeting in recent weeks to decide who would risk roiling the party by mounting a primary challenge. Among those in on the conversations is O'Malley's 2006 primary foe, former Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan, who is contemplating a return to politics but stops short of saying he'll run for governor.
Several Republican contenders also have been looking for potential O'Malley missteps and conducting listening campaigns to gauge voter attitudes and their chances. Even as many wait for former Republican Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. to decide whether he would run, efforts are under way to draft lesser-known candidates such as Charles Lollar, an African-American and chairman of the GOP central committee in Charles County.
The conventional wisdom is that O'Malley would be the clear favorite as an incumbent in a heavily Democratic state.
The Cook Political Report, which analyzes elections across the nation, predicts the race is solidly in O'Malley's favor and unlikely to be closely contested. And the governor's approval rating hit nearly 50 percent earlier this year, or just three percentage points below his post-election rating, according to Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.
But the economy could become an Achilles' heel. The unemployment rate in Maryland has topped 7 percent, the highest in more than a quarter-century, and the financial malaise could continue for several years. The state budget has suffered, and next year's shortfall is projected to be at least $1.2 billion, putting pressure on the governor to cut spending or raise revenues just before an election.
