WASHINGTON - -Even as the nation's economy begins clawing its way out of the worst recession in 60 years, there are growing signs that this recovery could come with an unsettling twist: The wheels of commerce may begin to turn again without any substantial boost in jobs.
Not only is the unemployment rate - now 9.4 percent - likely to climb into double digits, it is expected to remain there well into next year or possibly longer, economists say, prolonging the misery of the unemployed, squeezing retailers and other businesses, and adding millions of dollars in government costs and lost productivity. It could even threaten the recovery itself.
While it's common for the jobless rate to keep climbing for a time after economic output turns positive, the last two downturns, in 1990-1991 and 2001, introduced the idea of a "jobless recovery": Many unemployed workers found that jobs as good as the ones they had lost were almost impossible to find, even though the overall economy improved.
This time, many economists say, there are new factors that could make the problem worse:
Many more layoffs in this recession have been permanent, not temporary. And mass layoffs are continuing at a record pace; last month they cost nearly 313,000 workers their jobs.
Also, instead of shrinking operations, companies have shut down whole business units or made sweeping structural changes, such as General Motors and Chrysler shuttering hundreds of dealerships and Citibank and Bank of America cutting tens of thousands of positions.
In addition, workers who survived job cuts are, on average, working fewer hours per week than ever before, according to Labor Department statistics. That means employers, even after they feel confident enough about the recovery to expand, will begin by giving more hours to existing employees instead of hiring new ones.
More troubling still is the outlook for consumers. The depth of this recession, plus widespread expectations that unemployment will keep rising into mid-2010 and remain high thereafter, may exert a powerful drag on the recovery.
Shortly after the 1990-1991 recession, said Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, consumers went out and bought houses, cars and other expensive goods on credit.
That helped boost job growth in construction, manufacturing and other industries.
