The question, of course, is when that will happen. I'm skeptical of predictions of a roaring economic comeback. But even formerly pessimistic seers are suggesting the economy could begin growing again this summer.
Natural gas inventories (the stuff extracted, pumped into pipes and waiting to be burned) are at five-year highs. That should keep prices relatively low at least into next winter, barring another bad hurricane that disrupts drilling and transportation. But some pros believe prices will still move up from today's 50-cent territory.
"We believe the winter number is going to be in the 85- to 95-cent range in February of 2010," says Richard Anderson, managing principal for Columbia-based CQI Associates, which is selling household energy plans through local chambers of commerce.
At the instigation of the Public Service Commission, which believes utilities should partly pass today's low prices to consumers who burn gas this winter, BGE is buying more gas in the spring and summer this year than it usually does. That would partly shield users if the market heads back up. Even so, prices billed to households will probably go up, BGE says.
"Based on what we're seeing so far, we would expect this winter's gas to probably be a little lower than last winter, but it's going to be higher than what we see right now," said Ronald T. Jennings, BGE's director of gas supply.
Is that reason enough to lock up your own supply, separate from what BGE will offer? (BGE is always your electric and gas delivery company, but suppliers can vary.) The best natural gas deal out there is from WGES (see phone number above), letting you buy for a year at 73 cents and two years at 84 cents.
While substantially higher than today's price, those deals - especially the two-year package - will look good if the economy recovers in a robust way. If prices of $1.20 or $1.50 per therm would make a distressing dent in your budget, the two-year WGES deal is the way to go.
For heating oil, one decision is easy. Fill up now, if you have the cash. Most tanks hold 275 gallons or so - about a third of a winter's supply in Maryland - so you'll be partly protected if prices go back over $3. You might also investigate price caps and other "hedging" that area dealers offer.
For example: You can pay Carroll Independent Fuel (800-834-8590) 20 cents a gallon to ensure next winter's oil supply won't cost more than $2.59 a gallon. So you could reserve 500 gallons at 20 cents each, or $100, and if the market price goes up to $4 you come out ahead.
(Be careful with companies that offer "free" price caps. Some charge you hundreds of dollars if you want to get out of the deal later.)
For consumers, timing the market generally doesn't work any better for energy than it does for stocks.
But with prices down so far from last year's highs and the economy apparently recovering from its coma, this might be the time to make an exception.
