This year's $1 price increase is slightly less in terms of dollars and cents than last year's rise of $1.05 between the beginning of the year and mid-June. But because of the low base price at the beginning of this year - the result of a precipitous drop over the second half of 2008 - the increase is much greater in percentage terms than the 35 percent increase early last year.
Jonathan Cogan, a spokesman for the Energy Information Administration, said his agency is not expecting a return to $4-a-gallon gas this year.
"It could be that we're near the end of the seasonal price increases we've seen show up," he said. "Normally, in most years, we tend to see prices peak in the first half of the driving season rather than in the second half."
In recent years, prices have tended to spike in late spring and early summer but to drop before Labor Day. Last year's monthly average price was more than $4 in June and July but eased in August. The previous year, prices crested at just above $3 in May and June before edging down in July and August.
Cogan added a caveat.
"It's notoriously hard to predict what's going on in the world crude oil market," he said. He noted that crude oil, the single largest factor in gasoline costs, started the year at $30 a barrel and lately has been trading above $70. On Monday, there was a glimmer of hope as the benchmark price of crude fell $1.42, to $70.62 a barrel, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
But Fyne Ndukwe, an immigrant taxi driver from Nigeria, wasn't feeling too hopeful as he pumped $2.53 gas at a Hess Station on Charles Street near Penn Station. He said that last year when gas prices were above $4, he could at least get enough fares to offset the pump price.
"The economy is very, very bad. You have to cruise around and circulate around trying to get a fare," he said. "Fewer people catch cabs than when it was $4."
John Pfoor of Timonium, who pumped gas into his Honda Accord at the same station, said the recent increases haven't been enough to affect his driving habits.
"It hasn't changed my behavior yet, but it gets me to thinking," the retired Secret Service agent said. "I think we'll be near to the 3s very soon, by the end of the summer."
Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, said the recent increases have not been driven by a shortage of crude oil or a spike in demand.
"It's difficult to have shortages of gasoline when refineries are operating at 83 percent of capacity. There's plenty of refining capacity and there's plenty of crude."
Kloza said wealthy investors have been pouring money into oil futures as a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar.
"It's money flow and it's money chasing assets on Wall Street," he said.
