On a late-April trip to Iran, I had a hard time getting people to talk about the country's looming presidential race. My questions about the election, to be held Friday, were dismissed as irrelevant in a nation of apathetic voters who knew that real power was vested not in the president but in Iran's unelected supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a handful of clerics.
Most of the people I spoke to seemed resigned to the reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And they felt that the election didn't really matter, given Mr. Khamenei's tightfisted control.
But when I returned to the country late last month, the mood had shifted drastically.
The brief campaign season in Iran creates an "election fever." A nation starved for entertainment becomes obsessed with presidential politics as supporters of opposing candidates vie for attention in every public square and on every major boulevard.
Predicting the outcome of an Iranian presidential contest has always been a fool's errand. Still, it's hard to ignore the "anyone but Ahmadinejad" mood on display in Iran's largest cities over the last few weeks. That sentiment would seem to favor the leading opposition figure, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who has leaned heavily on his endorsement by the still-popular former president, Mohammad Khatami.
In April, Mr. Khatami told me that unless a mowj (literally, a "wave") of support suddenly materialized for Mr. Mousavi, it would be difficult to wrest the presidency from Mr. Ahmadinejad. As it happened, I witnessed that wave as it occurred, at a kickoff rally for Mr. Mousavi on May 23 at the Azadi indoor sports stadium. The event drew an overflowing and enthusiastic crowd that seemed eager for change.
Mr. Ahmadinejad came to office promising to eliminate corruption and bring Iran's oil wealth to ordinary citizens. But his economic policies have ultimately benefited very few, and Iran's economy is stagnant. Unemployment remains high, and the inflation rate is running close to a staggering 30 percent a year.
Mr. Mousavi, who has been out of politics for nearly two decades, is relying on his reputation as a skilled manager when he served as prime minister during the years of the Iran-Iraq war. He has called for a more conciliatory foreign policy than Mr. Ahmadinejad, with the hope of getting foreign sanctions lifted. On the economy - the No. 1 issue in the minds of voters - he has said very little other than promising to appoint competent professionals to his cabinet, a not-so-veiled jab at Mr. Ahmadinejad, who has had to frequently shuffle his cabinet amid charges of incompetence.
