Treasuries Take Hit As Stocks Soar

When every other asset was plunging a few months ago, U.S. Treasury securities reached what might have been the peak of a long and amazing bull market that began in the early 1980s. Despite soaring U.S. debt and questions about whether it will all be paid back, Treasuries, backed by the taxing power of the government, were deemed a safe harbor during the financial collapse.

But when storms begin to abate, safe harbors empty out.

In a reverse image of soaring stock markets, Treasuries have fallen sharply since March. The longer the maturity, the worse they have done. Mutual funds owning lots of 30-year and 10-year Treasuries have gotten hammered. T. Rowe Price's U.S. Treasury Long-Term Fund is down 13 percent so far this year. The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund has lost more than 20 percent, according to Reuters.

There is a big debate about whether the plunge heralds increasing fiscal problems for Washington and resurgent inflation or just signals that the emergency is over. (Bond interest rates and prices move in opposite directions. Investors bid rates up and push prices down when they fear inflation is near or the money won't be paid back.)

Treasury rates have spiked. But at 4.5 percent, the yield on the 30-year bond is back where it was last summer. If the economy keeps improving, which will raise inflation risks, it'll go much higher.