WASHINGTON - -President Barack Obama's pick to lead U.S. forces inAfghanistan warned Tuesday that casualties are likely to increase as the U.S. military steps up its campaign against insurgents in the beleaguered country.
Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal also voiced skepticism that Taliban guerrillas could be persuaded to sever their ties with al-Qaeda, calling into question a divide-the-enemy strategy that had been critical to his success as commander of special operations forces in Iraq.
"I don't think that the Taliban have any reason right now to turn their back on al-Qaeda," McChrystal told the Senate Armed Services Committee, his first public remarks since being selected last month to lead a revised U.S. strategy in Afghanistan.
McChrystal's skepticism stems in part from concern among U.S. military leaders that the Taliban is widely perceived as prevailing against coalition forces that have been unable to contain a drastic increase in violence over the past two years.
McChrystal also cited intermarriage among al-Qaeda members and Taliban-connected tribes. "They've created connections that are beyond just organizational," McChrystal testified.
McChrystal, who currently serves as director of the Pentagon's Joint Staff, is expected to make sweeping changes in the U.S. approach to a war effort that has suffered setbacks since the initial rout of the Taliban government in 2001.
President Obama ordered an additional 21,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan earlier this year, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates last month fired the current U.S. commander there, Gen. David D. McKiernan, as part of an effort to bring "fresh thinking" to the battle.
McChrystal outlined his strategy, saying it will rely heavily on bolstering U.S. intelligence collection in the country, reducing civilian casualties and speeding up the training of Afghan security forces.
"Success will not be quick or easy," McChrystal said. "Casualties will likely increase." A specialist at guerrilla warfare who is known for his ascetic lifestyle and extreme fitness regimen, he was credited for his inventive use of special operations teams in Iraq to track down Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and other insurgents.
But he may face a more daunting task in Afghanistan, where insurgent fighters routinely retreat to Pakistan. McChrystal all but ruled out U.S. military operations inside that country, saying the idea of doing so is "not valid." But he also launched what is likely to be a continuing effort to prod the Pakistanis to broaden their assault on the Taliban, describing the conflict in dire terms for the government in Islamabad.
A U.S. defeat in Afghanistan would likely lead to civil war there, the return of al-Qaeda, and creation of a new haven for Taliban groups that have challenged the Pakistani government.
South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham asked whether that sequence could lead to the collapse of Pakistan. McChrystal replied: "Sir, I think it's very likely. And then, of course, that's a nuclear-armed state so you've got nuclear weapons under questionable control at that point."
