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Changes In Gm Could Still Fail

Analysts Watch As Automaker Restructures In Hopes Of Eventual Profits

June 02, 2009|By Martin Zimmerman , Tribune Newspapers

Among the new vehicles the automaker hopes will get the new GM off to a strong start are the redesigned Buick LaCrosse sedan; the SRX crossover and CTS sport wagon from Cadillac; the GMC Terrain and Chevy Equinox crossovers; the Chevy Cruze, GM's new global subcompact; and the reintroduction of the classic Chevy Camaro muscle car.

Analysts are already debating whether the GM tree needs to lose a few more branches. GMC's big pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles are seen by many as slightly fancier versions of similar vehicles sold under the Chevy badge. Offering vehicles such as the Sierra pickup and the Yukon SUV as higher-priced, option-laden Chevys might make more sense, some analysts suggest.

"They could've gotten away with keeping just Chevy and Cadillac - a mainstream brand and a premium brand," said John Wolkonowicz, an analyst with consulting firm IHS Global Insight. "But GMC is GM's second-biggest-selling brand in the U.S. and Buick is one of the most popular brands in China."

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GM says it expects its U.S. market share to stabilize at around 18 percent, down from 22 percent last year and more than 50 percent in the early 1960s. But some analysts think it ultimately could sink to 16-17 percent.

Like all automakers that want to sell cars in the U.S., GM will have to tilt its lineup smaller and more efficient to meet new fuel-economy standards. Consumers have shunned compact gas-sippers when pump prices fall, but Henderson said he was confident that the current lull in gas prices was only temporary.

"We're planning our business assuming that ... we will see higher oil prices than we have today," Henderson said. "Fuel economy will remain a key driver on the purchase decisions for consumers."

Henderson stressed Monday that GM intends to continue to seek growth overseas, especially in China.

But will GM be able to chart its own course? The bankruptcy restructuring will leave the government owning 60 percent of the company, and whittling away that ownership stake will be "a question of years, not months," Henderson said.

While the administration says it doesn't intend to micro-manage GM, some analysts have carped that the government could meddle in product decisions to push policy goals on fuel economy and emissions standards, or even favor GM when deciding on cars for government fleets.

"It's a very strange predicament," said Robert Reich, former U.S. labor secretary. "Is the goal to preserve and protect automobile jobs or is it to create a new, lean and mean, slimmed-down and debt-free GM?"

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