"A number of cities have experienced crime declines and in some cases they are continuing," Rosenfeld said. "But I would be surprised if we saw a break in this recession in the connection between crime rates and the economy that we've observed over the last several decades."
A survey of more than 200 police departments by the Police Executive Research Forum earlier this year found that 43 percent reported rising levels of what they felt were recession-driven crimes, including theft, robberies and burglaries.
Across the country, the ability of departments to respond has been affected as budget constraints force deep cuts. USA Today reported last week that some agencies are closing precincts, merging with other departments or shutting down altogether. Nineteen suburban and rural police agencies in Pennsylvania have closed in the past 15 months, and seven others have cut patrols, forcing state police to assume responsibility for an additional 54,000 people, the paper reported.
In Baltimore, the police budget was largely spared. At a City Hall budget hearing this month, the most-talked-about cuts involved the ending of a tuition reimbursement program for officers and the shifting of Police Athletic League centers to the recreation and parks department. Overtime has also been reined in, though officials say they are now spending more deliberately.
"We have tried to be very strategic [with the budget]," Dixon said.
But she warns that tough decisions could be coming: "We're not out of the water. It's going to get worse before it gets better."
A number of recent high-profile incidents - including a melee at the Inner Harbor and several random attacks in the Mount Vernon area - have contributed to an impression that the city's violence is as bad as ever.
Police numbers paint a different picture. According to the most recent data available, six of nine police districts have seen significant declines in total crime. Northern District Maj. Ross Buzzuro said his district deployed more officers, some in plainclothes, to the Charles Village neighborhood at the beginning of the year after a spike in robberies and property crimes. Some of the district's biggest decreases have been achieved in that area, he said.
"Working with the community, we've been able to make significant arrests," Buzzuro said.
