With the unofficial beginning of summer here, crime in Baltimore so far this year is down in nearly every category, mirroring a national trend as most large cities defy predictions that crime will rise in a struggling economy.
Total crime is down 9 percent, including an 11 percent drop in violent crime. Property crime, which rose last year for the first time in 15 years, is down 9 percent so far this year. And homicides, which for much of the year were up by a considerable margin, have largely stabilized in recent weeks.
Police commanders attribute the reductions in violence to the "second phase" of a strategy to target violent offenders, which officials say led to a 20-year low in homicides last year. More focused efforts have led to drops in serious crimes, despite fewer arrests.
"If you look at the success here in Baltimore, we're seeing extraordinary results," said Mayor Sheila Dixon in a phone interview from a conference in Las Vegas.
Despite the gains, Baltimore remains one of the most violent cities in the country. Four people were killed over the Memorial Day weekend, and a man was in critical condition after being stabbed in a trendy area of downtown Sunday night.
There are also signs that the city could be starting to feel the pinch from the economy. Residential burglaries spiked to start the year, and car break-ins are up 12 percent. The increase is more pronounced in some areas of the city, such as East Baltimore, where larcenies from automobiles are up 119 percent.
"Perhaps in years past, we could get one or two or three guys in a geographic region that were disproportionately affecting the problem, with one guy good for 200, 300, 400 break-ins," said Police Commissioner Frederick H. Bealefeld III. "Now our intelligence is showing that many more people may be involved."
Experts say car break-ins are a bellwether of future crime and are tied to the economy. In Baltimore, unemployment nearly doubled from March 2008 to March 2009, from 5.3 percent to 10.3 percent. The statewide rate was 6.9 percent, up from 3.8 percent last March.
Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis who studies crime trends, said his research shows a direct correlation between crime and the economy over the past several decades, and he sees no reason why this recession will be any different.
